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AXPZ20 KNHC 210911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jun 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in northern Central America and the Mexican State
of Chiapas:
The broad circulation associated with the remnants of Alberto is
expected to produce additional heavy rainfall amounts across the
Pacific coast of far southern Mexico, southern Guatemala, El
Salvador,western Honduras and western Nicaragua. This heavy
rainfall can cause life- threatening conditions that include
flooding and mudslides. Expect the heavy rainfall to continue
through this evening. Please refer to your local meteorological
and emergency management office bulletins for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N94W to 11N110W to 09N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 12N between
95W and 100W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
an ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Scattered showers associated with the remnants of Alberto are
emerging off the coast of Sinaloa into the southern Gulf of
California. This feature is likely contained to the mid levels of
the atmosphere, and while no clear low pressure is evident at
the surface, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated
fresh to strong SW winds off the coast of southern Sinaloa. This
area of showers is along a deep trough reaching from the lower
Colorado River Valley, across the length of the Gulf of
California, then farther to the southeast into central Mexico.

The gradient between the trough and higher pressure farther west
of the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to strong NW off Baja
California, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data.
Concurrent altimeter data indicated combined seas of 6 to 8 ft
off Baja California.

Farther south, recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite
passes confirmed fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to
11 ft seas persist across the offshore waters of Oaxaca and
Chiapas States in southern Mexico. In addition, strong gusts and
frequent lightning may accompany clusters of thunderstorms in
this area. Gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and
seas of 2 to 4 ft dominate the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very rough
seas, and scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will
continue to impact the southern Mexico offshore waters through
today, primarily off Chiapas and Oaxaca. Dangerous surf is also
anticipated along the coastal areas of this region through this
evening. To the north, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas
are expected near Baja California Sur, including the waters near
Cabo San Lucas through this morning due to tighter pressure
gradient. Conditions across the Mexico offshore waters will
improve this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing heavy rainfall event.

Fresh to strong SW to W monsoonal winds and 8 to 11 ft seas
continue across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate SW winds along with seas at 5
to 7 ft within S swell are noted across the rest of the Central
America and Colombia offshore waters. Farther south, gentle to
moderate southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate southerly
swell exist near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds, rough to very
rough seas and numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms
will persist across the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador
and northwestern Nicaragua through late today. Dangerous surf is
also anticipated along the coastal areas of this region until
this evening. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated off Costa Rica and Panama into the
weekend. Farther south, moderate to rough seas in moderate
southerly swell will continue near the Galapagos Islands and
offshore of Ecuador into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward to the Baja
California offshore waters from a 1029 mb high pressure centered
NW of the area near 35N150W. The associated gradient is
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
north of ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 120W. East of 115W
and north of 08N, fresh to strong SW to NW monsoonal winds and
seas at 8 to 11 ft are present. South of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in
moderate southerly swell dominate.

For the forecast, monsoonal winds and seas east of 115W and
north of 06N will gradually decrease through tonight into Sat.
Otherwise, little overall changes are expected through early next
week.

$$
Christensen