360
AXPZ20 KNHC 222114
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 13.8N 98.7W at
22/2100 UTC, and stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure
is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to
40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 11N to
16N between 95W and 109W. At this time, seas are peaking to 10 ft
within the area of strongest winds. A slow northeastward motion
is expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to
east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the
next couple of days. Strengthening is forecast during the next
few days while the center of the system remains over water. The
depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with
isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of
Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast, between 10 and
20 inches of rain can be expected through Thursday, with
localized higher amounts near 30 inches.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Ten-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A Central American Gyre is gradually developing and continue
through the middle of next week. This scenario, combined with
daytime heating and orographic lifting, is expected to generate
periods of excessive rainfall over southern Mexico and Central
America, as well as the adjacent W Caribbean and E Pacific waters
between 80W and 95W. This activity could produce dangerous flash
flooding and mudslides across the area. Furthermore, strong to
near gale force winds, rough seas and tstms are forecast to
affect the offshore waters between Costa Rica and El Salvador
from Mon night through the end of the week. Please follow the
forecasts from your local weather offices for more detailed
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 16N107W to 11N140W.
Aside from the convection related to T.D. 10-E, scattered
moderate convection prevails from 09N to 12N between 124W and
132W, and from 09N to 13N and W of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the recently upgraded
T.D. 10-E and the developing Central American Gyre (CAG).

A broad surface ridge extends SE to just west of the Baja California
offshore waters. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the Baja
California offshore waters, while moderate seas are N of Punta
Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of
California with slight seas. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in
the vicinity of T.D. 10-E, with seas to 9 ft. Otherwise, light
to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Ten-E will strengthen to a
tropical storm near 14.0N 98.6W Mon morning, move to 14.4N 98.2W
Mon afternoon, 14.8N 97.5W Tue morning, 15.0N 96.6W Tue
afternoon, 15.3N 95.6W Wed morning, and 16.1N 94.1W Wed
afternoon. Ten-E will weaken to a tropical depression while
moving inland near 17.1N 92.9W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, surface
ridging will remain in place through mid-week. Gentle to
moderate NW winds will continue over the Baja California offshore
waters through Wed night. Light to gentle winds will prevail
along the Gulf of California through Thu night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are ongoing south of the monsoon
trough and across the offshore waters from Colombia to Costa
Rica along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and
tstms are over the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa
Rica due to an active monsoon trough. Strong winds and rough
seas are likely in the regions of strongest convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of
the monsoon trough will change little through Mon, then increase
to fresh to near gale force speeds across the offshore waters
from Costa Rica to Guatemala late Mon through Wed night. Seas
will build during this time in mixed swell. The monsoonal flow
is expected to become very active, and dominate the region
through next week. This pattern will generate increasing
westerly wind waves moving into the area waters. Periods of very
active weather are also expected across the Central America
offshore waters through at least mid week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging prevails N of 15N and W of 115W. A surface low W
of the area is supporting fresh winds and seas to 9 ft from 10N
to 15N and W of 138W. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds and
moderate seas are N of 15N. An area of fresh to strong winds and
seas to 8 ft prevails along the monsoon trough from 08N to 15N
between 97W and 128W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, southwest monsoonal winds will continue to
become well established through early next week as the monsoon
trough lifts slowly northward. Looking ahead, a trough of low
pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form during the middle part of the week while the system moves
slowly eastward or northeastward.

$$
ERA