752
AXPZ20 KNHC 270251
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Sep 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Newly downgraded Tropical Storm John is centered near 17.9N
103.2W at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking near 21 ft, with
12 ft seas extend as far south as 12N. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 19N between
101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
09N to 21N between 97W and 110W. On the forecast track, the
center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast
of southwestern Mexico or just inland overnight or early
tomorrow.

Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to
coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional
rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very
heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall
will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening
flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and
Michoacn. Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through
Friday, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information. Please read the
latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 17N108W to 11N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 87W, and from
08N to 14N between 110W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on Tropical Storm John.

Aside from Tropical Storm John, the pressure gradient between
lower pressure over Mexico as well as Tropical Storm John along
and high pressure NW of the area, is supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds over the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW
swell over these waters. In the Gulf of California, light
breezes prevail N of 29N with gentle to moderate NW winds are
along the remainder gulf. Seas of 1 to 4 ft are noted S of 28N in
the Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm John is near 17.9N 103.2W at 8
PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 984 mb. John will move inland to 18.3N 103.4W Fri morning,
19.0N 104.4W Fri evening, weaken to a tropical depression near
19.5N 105.7W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.2N
107.0W Sat evening, 20.8N 108.6W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun
evening. Rough to very rough seas will impact the south and
southwest Mexico offshore waters through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate
to fresh winds will prevail over the Baja California offshore
waters through the weekend, with rough seas subsiding by Sun
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Westerly swell associated with Tropical Storm John is generating
seas to 9 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters.
Moderate winds are noted over these waters. Light to gentle
winds are across the remainder Central America offshore waters
with moderate seas.

For the forecast, rough seas to 9 ft across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador will subside early Sat night.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail across the Central and South American offshore waters
through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 8 to 14 ft, are
noted over the periphery of Tropical Storm John, which is over
the SW Mexican offshore waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 5-7 ft, are noted south of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the waters N of the
monsoon trough.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds, and rough to
very rough seas, in association with John will continue north of
09N through early Fri before winds slowly diminish through Sat.
Elsewhere, fresh winds south of the monsoon trough will diminish
to moderate speeds Fri night.

$$
AL