414
AXPZ20 KNHC 130344
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jul 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W from 06N northward into
the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby
convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W from 04N to 15N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W from 07N to 19N, moving
westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 05N to 16N, moving
westward around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave has repositioned to near 135W from
05N to 16N. Nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low over northern
Colombia near 10.5N74W to 11N86W to 10N118W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N118W to 10N125W, then resumes west of a tropical wave
from 09N127W to 09N135W, and again resumes west of a tropical
wave from 08N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 06N to 09N between 108W and 113W,
and from 08N to 12N between 117W and 123W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 84W and
105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are occurring through
the Gulf of California as troughing prevails over the northern
Gulf and along the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate
to locally fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring
offshore of southern Mexico, generated by fresh E gap winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo offshore of Nicaragua. Otherwise, ridging
extends over the remainder of the waters, supporting mainly
gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and S and are noted
offshore of Baja, and seas of 5 to 6 ft in S swell are occurring
offshore of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh N gap winds
will occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next
week as high pressure builds over central Mexico. Farther south,
moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the Gulf of
Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico through the
middle of next week. Elsewhere, localized moderate SE to SW gap
winds are expected in the Gulf of California into Mon. Fresh to
strong S to SE winds will then develop over the northern Gulf by
midweek as low pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of
Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia.
Moderate E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft also extend through the
waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the
monsoon trough, moderate S to SW winds are noted. Seas of 5 to 7
ft in S to SW swell prevail over the Central and South American
waters.

For the forecast, fresh E winds are expected in the Gulf of
Papagayo through Sun, with pulsing strong winds and occasionally
rough seas then expected early next week as high pressure builds
over Mexico and the Gulf of America. Moderate to locally fresh E
winds will extend through the waters offshore of Guatemala and El
Salvador. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse
in the Gulf of Panama into the middle of next week. A new S to
SW swell will propagate through the South American waters
starting on Sun, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador and
Colombia through the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate N to NE winds are occurring north of the ITCZ and west
of 120W along the periphery of high pressure, centered north of
the area near 40N142W. Locally fresh NE winds are noted in the
northwestern waters, generally north of 25N and west of 130W,
where seas of 5 to 7 ft in NE swell prevail. South of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ, moderate to fresh S to SE winds and seas of 6 to
8 ft are occurring.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas will occur north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
through next week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific.
Occasionally fresh trade winds may generate short-period rough
seas, from 10N to 15N west of 130W, through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, a new S to SW swell will propagate through the
southern waters over the next several days, promoting rough seas
south of 05N. Looking ahead, a new N swell may lead to rough seas
north of 25N by midweek.

$$
ADAMS