727
AXPZ20 KNHC 230826
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N85W to 13N95W to 09N120W to
09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from
08N to 13N east of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is evident
within 30 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 110W and
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1010 mb low pressure area is centered off Baja California
near Punta Eugenia. This feature is creating a relatively weak
pressure gradient across the Mexican offshore waters, supporting
gentle to moderate breezes over the region. Combined seas are
still approaching 7 ft in the offshore waters of Oaxaca,
Guerrero, and Michoacan due to lingering SW swell. But combined
seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in open waters except 1 to 3 ft in
the Gulf of California. A few showers and thunderstorms are
occurring along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the relatively weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through the
middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast
of Nicaragua and northwest Costa Rica. This is related to
abundant moisture, a convergence of lower level winds, and
diffluent flow aloft. Meanwhile, a weak pressure pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas
with a component of SW swell across the region.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue through the middle of next week and will
support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
wave heights.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1030 mb high pressure well
north of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident west of 125W. Gentle
to moderate breezes are noted east of 125W. An altimeter
satellite pass from 01 UTC indicated seas to 8 ft still persist
as far west as 110W along 10N, related to lingering swell
associated with persistent SW wind that were active over the
region for most of the past week. Gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere east to 125W.

For the forecast, the lingering swell east of 110W will diminish
through tonight. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen