837
AXPZ20 KNHC 261602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane John is centered near 17.5N 102.7W at 26/1500 UTC,
moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80
kt. The 12 ft seas extend 315 nm in the south semicircle and 120
nm in the NW quadrant with peak seas near 21 ft. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between
97W and 111W. On the forecast track, the center of John is
forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern
Mexico or just inland on later today. Additional strengthening
is expected until the center moves along the coast or inland
later today, which should cause John to quickly weaken to a
depression Friday.

Through Friday, John is expected to produce additional rainfall
amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches
across portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and
Michoacan. Swells associated with John are forecast to continue
to affect the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through
the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents.
Please see local statements for more information. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
and the latest John NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends west of Hurricane John near 13N112W
to 12N127W and beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection related
to Hurricane John, scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N E of 84W, from 09N to 15N between 114W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for
information on Hurricane John.

Lower pressure over Mexico and Hurricane John along with high
pressure N of the area, and ridging extending just west of the
Baja California Peninsula continue to support moderate to fresh
NW winds over the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in
NW swell. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle breezes
prevail N of 29N while gentle to moderate NW winds are along the
remainder gulf. Seas of 1 to 4 ft are ongoing S of 28N in the
Gulf. In the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are gentle to
moderate from the SW, however fresh to near gale force winds are
just west of Tehuantepec in the Oaxaca offshore waters due to now
Hurricane John. The remainder SW Mexican offshore waters are
being heavily impacted by Hurricane John.

For the forecast, John will move to 18.0N 102.9W this evening,
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 18.6N 103.4W Fri
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near
19.2N 104.2W Fri evening, become a remnant low and move to 19.8N
105.4W Sat morning, 20.5N 107.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun
morning. Rough to very rough seas will impact the south and
southwest Mexico offshore waters through Sat. Heavy rainfall will
continue to impact Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan through
Friday. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh winds will continue over the
Baja California offshores through the weekend, with rough seas
subsiding by Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Westerly swell associated with Hurricane John, which is affecting
the SW Mexican offshore waters, continues to support seas to 9 ft
over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Light to
gentle winds are across the remainder Central America offshore
waters with moderate seas. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S and SE
with moderate seas.

For the forecast, rough seas to 9 ft across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador will subside early Sat night.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate SSW to WNW winds and moderate seas
will dominate across the Central and South American offshore
waters through early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong to near gale force winds are occurring along the
periphery of now Hurricane John, which continues to affect the SW
Mexican offshore waters. Seas of 8 to 14 ft are likely occurring
just S of the SW Mexican offshores to 08N between 96W and 114W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough
between 120W and 140W. In the far northwest waters, N of 22N and
W of 129W, NW swell is bringing seas 8 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail north of the monsoon
trough with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Seas south of the monsoon trough
continue to be to 7 ft.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds in association
with Hurricane John will continue north of 08N through Fri
before winds slowly diminish through Sat. Rough to very rough
seas will accompany these winds, with seas slowly subsiding this
weekend into early next week. Elsewhere, NW swell will lead to
seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 22N and west of 125W today and will
subside by tonight. Fresh winds along the monsoon trough will
also bring rough seas between 120W and 130W today through Fri
night.

$$
Ramos