Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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283 FXUS64 KEPZ 260528 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Hot temperatures continue through Wednesday as moisture levels climb. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon, resulting in areas of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars. The elevated risk for flooding lingers into Thursday as temperatures cool slightly. Lower rain chances are forecast late in the week before monsoonal moisture returns over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Relatively quiet weather is expected through tomorrow morning as the monsoon high sits overhead. Temperatures have heated up nicely early this afternoon which may be enough to spark a few showers in the lowlands. Scattered showers and storms persist in the mountains into the evening. Most areas stay dry through tonight as the terrain- based activity dissipates this evening. The forecast for Wednesday remains on track with an upper trough rotating around the high to the north, possibly associated with the MCV currently in the Phoenix vicinity. Moisture levels rise with PWs near 1.5" (about 40% chance of reaching that threshold according to the GEFS in El Paso) Wednesday night. Converging surface winds are modeled somewhere near the RGV as well later in the day, creating more lift over the area. Hot temperatures underneath the ridge Wednesday afternoon should be enough to reach convective temps and initiate cells in the lowlands. Slow storm motion and high moisture content will create the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding into the overnight. The current burn scars are most susceptible to flash flooding and debris flows, warranting a Flood Watch for the Sacs that goes into effect at 11am and lasts through Wed night. On Thursday, the high gets suppressed to the south by an upper trough swinging through the northern Rockies. Rain chances and PWs lower somewhat as a result with not much forcing available. This drying trend lasts through Friday as the high stretches eastward and shuts off most of the moisture advection. For the weekend, the monsoon high strengthens and consolidates over the Southern Plains, setting up a nice moisture tap over the Desert SW. Most of the moisture sits over western areas with lower chances of daily storms east of the Rio Grande into early next week. More widespread storm coverage is expected west of the Divide from Saturday onward. For the rest of the week, generally hot conditions are expected as the elongating ridge remains nearby. Temps rebound to near advisory level Friday and Saturday for the lower RGV due to less clouds. Cooler temperatures near average are forecast by Sunday as the high holds to the east and cloud cover increases. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Lingering outflow boundaries are making for a low confidence forecast in terms of winds this evening. Nevertheless, prevailing flow will generally be west to northwest with speeds under 10 knots, except when influenced by an outflow. Slight chance for ISO SHRA/TSRA will continue for the next few hours, but chances for direct terminal impacts are low. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with variable cloudiness with bases around 100-150 through approximately 18 to 21z. During the 18 to 21z time period, SCT SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop area wide, initially over the mountains before moving into the lowlands. High confidence there will be at least indirect impacts at all terminal sites via outflow winds with a high confidence for direct impacts. The only limiting factor for confidence is timing, so added prob30 to all TAF sites beginning 21z. Strong gusty winds and heavy rain, including flight category reductions in VIS and CIG, will be the main concern with any storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the period. Monsoonal moisture remains in place into next week, keeping relative humidities high and resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Overnight recoveries will be very good. Winds will be light outside of gusty outflow boundaries from storms. An elevated risk of flash flooding on Wednesday and then this weekend may result in debris flows over burn scars. Rain chances will lower Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be warmer than normal for the rest of the week, then cooling to near average next week. Min RHs will be 25-30% in the lowlands Thursday, otherwise 15-25%; 25-40% in the mountains Thursday, otherwise 20-35%. Vent rates will be fair to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 84 107 82 101 / 40 70 70 40 Sierra Blanca 75 99 72 95 / 50 60 50 30 Las Cruces 78 105 76 99 / 40 70 70 40 Alamogordo 75 101 71 96 / 30 60 60 40 Cloudcroft 59 79 55 73 / 30 60 60 60 Truth or Consequences 78 101 75 95 / 20 70 70 60 Silver City 69 94 68 89 / 40 70 60 60 Deming 76 104 74 99 / 40 70 70 40 Lordsburg 74 100 73 97 / 40 60 60 40 West El Paso Metro 80 104 78 97 / 40 70 70 40 Dell City 76 103 73 99 / 40 60 40 30 Fort Hancock 77 106 74 101 / 40 70 60 30 Loma Linda 74 97 72 92 / 30 70 60 40 Fabens 80 107 76 99 / 40 70 70 30 Santa Teresa 77 104 75 97 / 40 70 70 40 White Sands HQ 82 102 78 95 / 40 70 70 40 Jornada Range 75 103 72 95 / 30 70 70 40 Hatch 75 105 74 97 / 40 70 70 50 Columbus 81 104 77 97 / 40 60 70 40 Orogrande 77 102 74 95 / 40 70 60 30 Mayhill 63 89 61 85 / 30 70 50 60 Mescalero 63 89 59 84 / 30 60 60 60 Timberon 61 87 58 83 / 20 60 50 50 Winston 64 92 62 84 / 20 70 70 70 Hillsboro 74 98 71 92 / 30 70 70 70 Spaceport 72 102 68 94 / 20 70 70 50 Lake Roberts 65 93 64 88 / 40 70 60 70 Hurley 69 97 67 93 / 30 70 70 40 Cliff 66 102 67 99 / 40 60 50 40 Mule Creek 71 96 70 92 / 30 60 50 40 Faywood 72 97 69 91 / 30 70 70 50 Animas 73 99 72 96 / 50 60 60 40 Hachita 74 101 71 95 / 40 60 70 50 Antelope Wells 73 99 70 93 / 50 70 70 60 Cloverdale 69 94 69 90 / 50 70 70 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-411. Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT Wednesday through late Wednesday night for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira