683
FXUS64 KEPZ 161731
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1131 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Weak high pressure aloft, and a dry westerly flow pattern across
the Southwestern U.S., will keep the Borderland quite warm and
very dry through mid-week this week. This means plenty of sunshine
and continued triple-digit temperatures across the lowlands
through Wednesday. After midweek, a pattern change will allow
moisture to return to the area on breezy to gusty east winds. This
will mean daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms as early as Wednesday, but more so late in the week,
which will help to lower temperatures below the century mark.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

We are well within an established deep and dry west flow pattern
across the Southwestern U.S., with a flat upper ridge of high
pressure nosing in from the east over our region. This will keep
our area very dry and quite warm. NBM max temperatures across the
lowlands have all locations in the triple-digits. The means are a
tad under Heat Advisory criteria, but bumping up to the 75th
percentiles, which have been verifying more often than not, place
our temperatures w/i the criteria for our lowest elevations,
which include the Rio Grande Valley today and Monday. Thus that
headline product remains in effect. The dry air means few clouds,
and very low RH. The coupled-effects of the hot and dry conditions
mean elevated concern for dehydration.

Winds will be fairly light under this minor ridging this
afternoon, but do trend a bit breezier by Monday as the pattern
shifts a bit toward west coast troughing, with a deep SW flow
ensuing, and some better surface troughing developing. Through at
least Wednesday, most of the forecast area will remain within this
hot and dry SW flow. The exception for Wednesday, will be our far
eastern zones, where Gulf moisture is expected to make a return,
for afternoon storm chances over the SACs/Guads/Otero/Hudspeth.

The ejection of a trough across the Northern Rockies will allow a
surface front to slide south and west down the Plains into the
Central Mountain chain of NM for Wednesday. Subsequent hard pushes
from the east Wednesday night and again Thursday night should
result in overnight breezy and gusty conditions across our
southern lowlands and sky islands, with a substantial influx of
more gulf moisture. The dryline will be staged close by to our
east initially, and then smear west and become diffuse near AZ/NM
border, with 50+ dewpoints across our entire CWA by THU and FRI.
This will result in daily clouds, and chances for areawide shower
and storm activity, as an inverted trough (easterly wave)
approaches from the TX Gulf Coast. These features tend to
underwhelm, but it does give us some added dynamics, above the
heating and orographics of the airmass instability. This will
ultimately break the streak of 100s for our lowlands. Once the
moisture arrives, there appears to be no strong flushing feature
to remove it, so NBM keep the dewpoints in the 50s across the
region well into the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will increase
this afternoon out of the SW to W with gusts up to near 20kts.
Winds will decrease after sunset with no impacts expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Yesterday showed us what the next several days will look like as
we continue under a deep westerly flow regime, with weak high
pressure nosing in from the west today. Through midweek that
upper high will transition to a broad Western U.S. trough anchored
to our west, but the resultant weather will continue almost the
same. This means temperatures remaining well above normal, with
very dry conditions keeping skies mostly clear, chances of rain
nil, and relative humidity exceptionally low, with single-digit
afternoons, and poor night/morning recoveries. Winds will tend on
the breezy side for the afternoons, after lighter winds today, due
to weak surface troughing.

We see a shift in the pattern, with a transition beginning
Wednesday. This shift will allow for a backdoor front to push in
from the Plains, which will import healthy gulf moisture into the
SACs and Guads for WED afternoon. So possible storms east, while
the rest of the area will still be dry. However we see strong
nightly east pushes WED and THU night, to smear that moisture all
the way west to the AZ state line. With all areas see dewpoints
rise to the 50s, RH will be elevated, and storm and shower chances
will rise for the end of the week, and through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 106  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            68 101  68  97 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               69 103  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    69 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   64 102  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  99  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       73 102  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65 104  65  99 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             68 107  67 103 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70 105  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 101  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65 101  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    64 102  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70 102  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  57  92  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  89  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 55  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  56  91  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  97  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                62  99  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   60  95  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    58 100  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  93  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  94  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64  99  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65  98  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham