818
FXUS64 KEPZ 242001
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the norm for the next week with no
chance for rain and some near record high temperatures possible.
The hottest day looks to be Friday when some areas will reach the
upper 90s. Overnight lows will cool down into the upper 50s and
60s for much of the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Very benign weather pattern for the upcoming week. Upper high is
currently over the Great Basin into ID but by this time tomorrow,
it will be over NM and remain nearly stationary into early next
week. What this leads to is hot and dry. High temperatures through
at least Monday will be in the upper 80s and 90s for the lowlands.
There`s even a slight chance that ELP could reach it`s latest ever
100 degree temperature on Friday, but due to the nice cool downs
at night and easterly winds, think 97-98 is more likely. 98 is the
record high for ELP on Friday and is definitely within reach. Most
other days will have highs more in the lower to mid 90s. Overnight
lows will be able to drop down into the mid 50s to mid 60s for
most of the lowlands with dew points remaining in the 30s and 40s.

A little temperature cool down may come going into next week Tue
as models are indicating a surface high building into the plains
with the CWA on the back end of a frontal boundary, but even this
only drops temps 3-6 degrees and highs will remain above average
for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

P6SM SKC-FEW100 through period.  An isolated storm is possible
over far southern Hudspeth county this afternoon, but that will be
it. Winds generally southeast to northeast 5-15KTS, strongest near
the AZ border after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Sep 24 2024

An upper high will be building in starting Wednesday which will
linger into next week. This will bring hot and dry conditions to
the entire area with near record highs possible, especially
Friday. Min RH`s will be in the mid teens to upper 20s for most of
the area through the period with winds mainly 5 to 15 mph. Vent
rates will range from fair/good north to very good south on
Wednesday but drop to poor to fair on Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  67  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            61  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               60  90  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               42  67  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    60  88  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   59  91  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                60  91  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  90  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                59  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             60  91  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   60  90  61  93 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             63  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           61  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            52  89  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    58  91  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 63  92  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                61  90  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  76  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 45  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  48  80  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                55  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                54  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             42  83  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   55  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    53  93  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               47  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  85  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  90  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  89  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz