051
FXUS64 KEPZ 151728
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1128 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Warm and dry conditions will prevail over the Borderland through
the weekend and into mid week as deep and dry westerly flow
remains over the region. Mid week and beyond we will begin to see
some moisture move in from the east, which will allow for more
clouds, and daily afternoon shower and storm chances. This will
mean a drop in temperatures, with daily highs still in the 90s,
but likely falling short of the triple-digits to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Based on the models, it appears we can cut the forecast into two
halves. The first half continues with the hot and dry conditions,
and the second half introduces some moisture and storms back into
the region, with an associated drop in temperatures.

For the front-half of the forecast cycle we will be under a deep
and dry westerly flow pattern with high pressure aloft nudging in
from the west. This will keep our skies generally clear, our
temperatures well above normal, our airmass dry, with
exceptionally low RH, and our winds in the fairly light range,
with just marginal and occasional afternoon gusts. Lowlands will
stay in the triple-digits, and we continue Heat Advisories for the
Rio Grande Valley lowlands from Southern Dona Ana, through our TX
zones. This period will be free of any precipitation.

Wednesday begins our back-half of the forecast cycle as we see a
broad Western U.S. trough develop and park to our west. Over the
Northern Rockies a sharper trough will eject east into the
Northern Plains, and allow for a surface push south and into our
region from the NE. This will reintroduce Gulf moisture over our
eastern zones first, with subsequent east pushes spreading the
moisture westward to our central and western zones later in the
week. With lower heights, and more moisture, we will see drops in
daily max temperatures to below the century mark. The added
moisture will allow for more clouds, and chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms across the region. Those start
as early as Wednesday for eastern zones, and Thursday/Friday for
western zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Winds will remain
light out of the SW-W for most of the airfields. Winds will pick
up slightly tomorrow out of the west, but say below 20kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

We continue the hot and dry weather pattern today, and through at
least Tuesday. Much of the moisture that we saw with yesterday`s
passing trough will exit the region today as the trough moves
east. That will mean fewer clouds, little to no precipitation/
storm chances, and very low surface RH this afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal, but
will trim back a few degrees. This still means 100+ for highs
across the lowlands. RH in the single-digits will be common. Winds
won`t be strong, just some occasional afternoon gusts, with
sustained winds less than breezy most of the time.

Once we get to Wednesday, we see a bit of a pattern change, with
a broad upper trough parked to our west. An ejecting trough over
the Northern Rockies will help to push a surface boundary south
and west into our SACs/GUADs, and introduce Gulf moisture back to
the area. First the eastern areas will see more clouds, higher RH,
and storm chances. But subsequent westward pushes each night
Wednesday through Friday, will spread that moisture west into the
Gila/Bootheel regions of SW NM. Thus by THU/FRI, we should see
improvements in RH values, more clouds, somewhat cooler
temperatures, and daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 106  76 105 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67 100  68 100 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               69 104  69 102 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67 103  67 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  79  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    70 102  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              64  93  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   64 103  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64 100  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72 103  74 101 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65 105  66 104 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             67 107  68 106 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  97  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   69 106  70 105 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             66 102  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           77 103  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            66 103  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    66 104  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70 103  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 102  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  91  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                58  90  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 56  89  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  59  94  56  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                67  99  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63 101  61  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             59  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  97  59  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    59 102  58  99 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               64  95  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  96  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64 101  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64 101  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           64 100  65  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  95  63  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...01-Barham