Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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386 FXUS64 KEPZ 120812 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 212 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Very hot conditions will continue through much of the period with the hottest temperatures expected for Thursday. The forecast remains dry for much of the area. The exception will be each afternoon through Friday for the Sacramento Mountains with some storms also possible in the Gila on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 UL ridge is building across the Desert Southwest. That means temperatures will climb, peaking tomorrow as the 597 dm H500 high centers over us. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in effect through Friday and will likely need to be extended beyond that. The ridge will be pushed east by the ejection of the low off the Baja Coast on Friday. Winds will be breezy as a result, especially west of the Continental Divide where fire danger will be a concern. NBM continues to keep enough moisture for storms in the Sacs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, NBM spreads POPs nearly area wide, but no deterministic member nor the GEFS support this solution. POPs were scaled back accordingly except for in the mountains. A flat pattern is expected for Saturday before a ridge begins to build to our east and a trough deepens to our west. Hot SW flow will set-up for our CWA, keeping us dry while temperatures climb again, peaking on Sunday. Loss of UL heights by Monday will cause temperatures to start a "cooling" trend, sending highs closer to normal by mid-week but still plenty hot. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. Winds will be light (4-7 knots) and generally VRB through the overnight timeframe. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024 We will remain hot and dry, but enough moisture will remain over the Sacramento Mountains to allow isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds and dry lightning the main concern. Elsewhere, min RH values will drop to 10 percent or less with very hot temperatures. Winds will stop out around 10 MPH the next couple of afternoons. On Friday, a passing trough will increase winds ranging 15 to 20 MPH for areas west of the Rio Grande and 10 to 15 MPH for areas east of the Rio. Areas west of the Rio Grande (Zones 110 and 111) are under a Fire Weather Watch as a result for critical fire conditions. Venting will range good to very good through Thursday, increasing to excellent for Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 78 110 81 107 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 70 103 72 99 / 10 10 10 10 Las Cruces 72 108 75 104 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 69 105 72 102 / 10 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 56 81 57 77 / 10 10 10 40 Truth or Consequences 71 104 73 99 / 10 0 20 20 Silver City 67 98 68 94 / 0 0 20 20 Deming 68 107 70 104 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 68 105 72 102 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 76 107 79 104 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 68 106 69 102 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 71 109 73 106 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 71 100 73 97 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 73 109 76 106 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 71 107 74 103 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 77 105 80 102 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 68 106 69 102 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 67 107 70 104 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 72 107 76 104 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 70 105 74 102 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 60 95 60 88 / 10 20 10 50 Mescalero 59 92 59 87 / 10 10 10 40 Timberon 57 89 58 87 / 10 10 10 40 Winston 62 95 63 90 / 10 10 20 40 Hillsboro 70 101 70 97 / 10 0 20 20 Spaceport 64 103 67 99 / 10 0 10 20 Lake Roberts 62 97 63 93 / 0 0 20 20 Hurley 65 101 65 97 / 0 0 20 10 Cliff 62 108 65 102 / 0 0 20 10 Mule Creek 67 100 69 96 / 0 0 10 10 Faywood 68 100 69 96 / 0 0 20 10 Animas 68 105 71 102 / 0 10 10 0 Hachita 68 105 72 102 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 69 104 70 101 / 0 10 10 0 Cloverdale 70 100 69 96 / 0 10 10 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422. Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-423-424. Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418- 419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401- 403>411-414-416-417-427>429. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NMZ110-111. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown