068
FXUS64 KEPZ 132329
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
529 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Warm and dry conditions continue across the Borderland, but we are
beginning to see some changes as a moisture slowly moves in from
the south through the weekend. Our temperatures will stay warmer
than normal, but trend a degree or two cooler each afternoon. In
addition, tropical moisture will increase on southerly and
southwest flow, to add clouds and rain chances to the region. Very
low rain chances for Saturday, for all but far southwestern New
Mexico, then increased rain and storm chances for the rest of the
area for Sunday and Monday. However, plenty of locations will miss
out on the hit and miss nature of the precipitation. However, we
will see more clouds. We dry back out next Tuesday with plenty
more sunshine, and near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Upper-level shortwave ridge now displaced to our east with a
better southerly fetch over the region, beginning to transport a
bit of subtropical moisture into the Borderland. We are beginning
to see some flat fair-weather cumulus and some cirrus streaming
over just to our south. These are early indications of some
changes in our atmosphere for the weekend. Well to our south, off
the tip of the Baja, Tropical Storm Ileana is tracking nearly due
north into the Gulf of California. With a stationary broad upper
trough dipping over the SW, we will see a fetch that will steer
tropical moisture off of Ileana up into the SW U.S. The first of
that moisture will be upper and mid-level based moisture that will
arrive tomorrow mostly over S AZ and far SW NM. Most of our
region will see only additions to cloud cover/development for
Saturday as moisture will be too high-based and too shallow to
produce much more than isolated virga and very light showers at
best.

For Sunday, and more so on Monday, the SW flow through the base of
the upper trough will begin to shift some of the deeper moisture
east over more of our CWFA. The GILA will stand pretty good
chances for widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms.
The stability parameters stay relatively weak, but with warm
surface temperatures and minor ripples passing aloft, we do see
some CAPE in the 100-500 J/kg range, and LIs of -1 to -3. Thus
storms are a possibility, although showers should be more
prevalent then storms. Our moisture amounts do spike to above
normal, but our low-levels seem to have trouble moistening up.
Thus despite PWATs above 1.15", we don`t really see strong
probabilities for heavy rains and flash flooding. However, it
there are slim chances, and those are mainly along the Continental
Divide and west, including the Gila region, where WPC has
"Marginal" excessive rain chances drawn. As of now we have pretty
low QPF for the SAT-TUE timeframe of this event.

On Tuesday we anticipate the moisture channel to begin a fairly
rapid shift eastward, with drying moving in of stronger WSW flow
aloft. We should see drying, and clearing, sweep from west to east
across the area, with any early day lingering showers ending as
the afternoon hours arrive.

For the WED-FRI periods of this forecast package, we see the
Western U.S. trough amplify and drop a low over the Great Basin.
We will see an enhanced SW flow aloft on the front-side of the
troughs base which will keep a flow of dry air over our region on
somewhat breezy SW winds. Just to our east will be that same
channel of moisture we saw over our region this weekend, so there
are outside chance for some precipitation over our Hudspeth and
Otero county areas, but much of the region will be dry.
Temperatures will ease back down to around the seasonal averages
with the trough nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Increasing
high level moisture moving north out of Chihuahua tonight, with
skies SCT-BKN120 BKN-OVC250 through the night and into Saturday
morning. Surface winds AOB 8 knots overnight, then 170-210 at
06-10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 PM MDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Temperatures have topped out and dryness has bottomed out for the
week, with both of these elements beginning to slowly moderate
somewhat. We will continue with somewhat above normal
temperatures, but they will slowly trend downward, and be near
seasonal averages by late weekend and early next week. RH will
slowly be on the rise also as we begin to ingest tropical moisture
from the south, off of Tropical Storm Ileana, off the Baja. Thus
expect clouds to be on the increase, as will the chances for rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms. These start over the Bootheel
on Saturday and expand over areas west of the Rio Grande on Sunday
(and maybe the SACs). By Monday it appears most of the region
will have the moisture spread over to see at least some chances
for rain. MinRH will rise from the current teens to 20 and 30
percent over the weekend and early next week, and then begin to
trend drier again on Tuesday. The moisture does move out to the
east with drier air replacing it over our area on Tuesday. Thus an
end to rain/storm chances for the rest of the week. Temperatures
will be near seasonal. With a deep trough anchored just to our
west we will have deep and dry SW flow which will allow for
marginally breezy afternoons much of next week. Overall, fire
weather concerns will be minimal through the week ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73  97  72  96 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  90  63  88 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               66  95  65  94 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo               66  93  65  93 /   0  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               50  70  50  69 /   0  20   0  30
Truth or Consequences    63  91  64  89 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City              58  86  60  84 /   0  10  10  50
Deming                   62  94  64  93 /   0  10   0  10
Lordsburg                61  91  64  89 /   0  10  10  30
West El Paso Metro       73  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City                67  96  65  94 /   0  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             70  96  66  95 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda               68  88  65  87 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                   70  96  68  94 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             68  93  67  93 /  10  10   0  10
White Sands HQ           70  93  69  93 /   0  10   0  10
Jornada Range            63  93  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Hatch                    61  95  64  94 /   0  10   0  20
Columbus                 67  93  68  93 /  10  10   0  10
Orogrande                66  92  65  92 /   0  10   0  10
Mayhill                  55  82  55  82 /   0  20   0  20
Mescalero                54  82  55  81 /   0  20   0  30
Timberon                 55  80  52  79 /   0  20   0  20
Winston                  50  84  53  81 /   0  10   0  50
Hillsboro                59  91  61  89 /   0  10   0  30
Spaceport                59  93  61  91 /   0  10   0  20
Lake Roberts             50  84  53  82 /   0  10  10  60
Hurley                   58  88  60  87 /   0  10   0  30
Cliff                    54  94  57  91 /   0  10  10  50
Mule Creek               58  87  60  83 /   0   0  10  50
Faywood                  61  88  62  87 /   0  10   0  30
Animas                   62  91  65  90 /   0  10  10  30
Hachita                  61  91  63  90 /  10  10  10  20
Antelope Wells           62  90  63  90 /  10  10  10  20
Cloverdale               59  85  60  85 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt