Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
267 FXUS64 KEPZ 151019 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 419 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Warm and dry conditions will prevail over the Borderland through the weekend and into mid week as deep and dry westerly flow remains over the region. Mid week and beyond we will begin to see some moisture move in from the east, which will allow for more clouds, and daily afternoon shower and storm chances. This will mean a drop in temperatures, with daily highs still in the 90s, but likely falling short of the triple-digits to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Based on the models, it appears we can cut the forecast into two halves. The first half continues with the hot and dry conditions, and the second half introduces some moisture and storms back into the region, with an associated drop in temperatures. For the front-half of the forecast cycle we will be under a deep and dry westerly flow pattern with high pressure aloft nudging in from the west. This will keep our skies generally clear, our temperatures well above normal, our airmass dry, with exceptionally low RH, and our winds in the fairly light range, with just marginal and occasional afternoon gusts. Lowlands will stay in the triple-digits, and we continue Heat Advisories for the Rio Grande Valley lowlands from Southern Dona Ana, through our TX zones. This period will be free of any precipitation. Wednesday begins our back-half of the forecast cycle as we see a broad Western U.S. trough develop and park to our west. Over the Northern Rockies a sharper trough will eject east into the Northern Plains, and allow for a surface push south and into our region from the NE. This will reintroduce Gulf moisture over our eastern zones first, with subsequent east pushes spreading the moisture westward to our central and western zones later in the week. With lower heights, and more moisture, we will see drops in daily max temperatures to below the century mark. The added moisture will allow for more clouds, and chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the region. Those start as early as Wednesday for eastern zones, and Thursday/Friday for western zones. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with generally light and VRB through mid morning. Wind will become SW at 6-11 knots during late morning and afternoon timeframe. Skies SCT-BKN150 at KELP, becoming SKC after 06-07Z. SKC through the period with possible FEW250 during the day. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 We continue the hot and dry weather pattern today, and through at least Tuesday. Much of the moisture that we saw with yesterday`s passing trough will exit the region today as the trough moves east. That will mean fewer clouds, little to no precipitation/ storm chances, and very low surface RH this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal, but will trim back a few degrees. This still means 100+ for highs across the lowlands. RH in the single-digits will be common. Winds won`t be strong, just some occasional afternoon gusts, with sustained winds less than breezy most of the time. Once we get to Wednesday, we see a bit of a pattern change, with a broad upper trough parked to our west. An ejecting trough over the Northern Rockies will help to push a surface boundary south and west into our SACs/GUADs, and introduce Gulf moisture back to the area. First the eastern areas will see more clouds, higher RH, and storm chances. But subsequent westward pushes each night Wednesday through Friday, will spread that moisture west into the Gila/Bootheel regions of SW NM. Thus by THU/FRI, we should see improvements in RH values, more clouds, somewhat cooler temperatures, and daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 105 75 106 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 99 67 100 68 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 102 69 104 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 98 67 103 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 77 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 98 70 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 93 64 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 101 64 103 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 99 64 100 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 101 72 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 103 65 105 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 105 67 107 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 95 67 97 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 104 69 106 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 100 66 102 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 100 77 103 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 99 66 103 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 101 66 104 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 101 70 103 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 99 68 102 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 89 59 91 59 / 10 0 10 0 Mescalero 87 58 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 86 56 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 91 59 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 96 67 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 97 63 101 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 94 59 93 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 96 62 97 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 102 59 102 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 95 64 95 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 95 65 96 62 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 100 64 101 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 99 64 101 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 99 64 100 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 93 64 95 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411. && $$ FORECASTER...14-Bird