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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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470 FXUS64 KEPZ 180531 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1131 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Breezy southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push moisture to our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain chances over the Sacramento Mountains on Friday before another Pacific low brings clear and mild weather next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper low centered over Yellowstone this evening with the trough axis swinging across the Southern Rockies. Winds have been breezy out of the southwest today with gusts in the 25-35 mph range across southern New Mexico. Vort max rotating around the system will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of eastern New Mexico today and perhaps the far eastern fringes of Hudspeth County TX. Much drier air exists behind the Pacific boundary which will quickly erode moisture along the Rio Grande valley this evening and bring an end to rain chances area wide through the middle part of the work week. Winds will also settle down after sunset tonight. Slight cool down on Wednesday with lowland highs in the lower 90s, however southwest flow will keep us slightly above normal for mid-September each day into the weekend. Almost Spring-like weather pattern with a moisture boundary fixed east of the I-25 corridor and sustained southwest flow across the US Southwest keeping it at bay. Global models do suggest slight intrusions Thursday and Friday which may allow for some very spotty storm chances, mostly for the Sacramento Mountains. Overall, rain chances for the next 7 days are slim and focused east of the Rio Grande. Good agreement in another Pacific low sweeping across the Central Rockies on Saturday, with dry air at the base of the system and clear, mild weather through next weekend. While temperatures won`t change too much (El Paso`s high remains 88-92 degrees), it will feel more fall-like especially during the overnight hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our ceilings across the area tonight are unlimited and those clear skies will continue throughout the day on Wednesday. Our winds are settling down and we will have generally light winds tonight. The low end gusty southwesterly winds look to return on Thursday. Should not be too strong will drop off after sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Lighter southwest flow Wednesday and Thursday with 20-ft speeds 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Good to Very Good smoke ventilation with transport to the NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances through Thursday. Midday RH 15-25%. Higher moisture will exist to the east, keeping RH higher over Lincoln National Forest. Friday and Saturday look to be more breezy as another Pacific low crosses the Central Rockies. Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly dry and warm for southern New Mexico. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 95 70 93 69 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 89 64 89 65 / 10 20 0 0 Las Cruces 92 62 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 90 60 90 62 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 67 46 67 48 / 20 10 10 10 Truth or Consequences 88 58 88 58 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 79 53 80 54 / 30 0 0 0 Deming 90 57 89 58 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 85 57 86 57 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 92 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 93 64 94 64 / 10 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 95 66 95 68 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 86 62 85 64 / 10 10 10 10 Fabens 93 66 93 66 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 90 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 90 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 89 60 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 91 57 90 58 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 91 62 89 62 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 90 62 88 62 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 80 51 80 53 / 30 10 10 10 Mescalero 77 49 78 51 / 30 0 10 10 Timberon 77 50 77 52 / 20 10 10 10 Winston 80 45 81 47 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 86 54 86 55 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 88 55 88 56 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 77 47 80 48 / 30 0 0 0 Hurley 83 52 83 53 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 86 50 88 50 / 40 0 0 0 Mule Creek 79 52 80 53 / 50 0 0 0 Faywood 83 55 83 55 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 87 57 88 56 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 87 57 87 56 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 87 55 88 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 80 54 81 54 / 10 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen