301
FXUS64 KEPZ 221214
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
614 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

After a cooler couple of days, we will see lower rain chances and
warmer temperatures the next couple of days. The best chances for
rain this weekend into the start of next will be in area
mountains. High temperatures will creep higher each day, so that
by Monday, most lowland locations will see high temperatures at
100 or a little higher. Our hottest days, the next 7 days, will be
Tuesday and Wednesday with El Paso seeing highs of 105 or a
little higher. We will be not as hot for the end of the coming
week as moisture and rain chances tick upward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We have enjoyed a nice couple of days with below average
temperatures, clouds and some rain, but as they say all good
things most come to an end. Upper level high pressure will begin
to slowly build into the region. That will keep our winds light
this weekend and it will limit our rain chances. I can`t say we
will have zero chances for rain, but the main moisture and
instability will be pushed west into Arizona. The best chances for
rain will be in area mountains, mainly in the Gila Region. In the
lowlands, we will see more sun and warmer temperatures. High
temperatures today will still run a degree or two below average
but Sunday`s high will creep a degree or two above average.

For Monday, the upper level ridge will be nearly centered over
New Mexico. This will warm our temperatures a few more degrees
above average. Usually with a ridge aloft, we would not see any
rain chances, but enough moisture will be trapped under the ridge
to warrant some continued isolated to scattered rain chances.
Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the hottest days during the
coming week. High temperatures in the lowland will be well above
100 degrees and El Paso and Las Cruces will be in the 104 to 106
range. We may need some heat advisory products those two days. By
Thursday and Friday of next week, the upper level ridge will
drift off to the east and that will allow a very monsoonish
pattern to develop as a stream of moisture will move up out of
Mexico. We will see better rain chance and we will be not as hot,
but still likely a little above 100 for much of the lowlands, for
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We will see VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. An upper level
ridge aloft will keep our surface winds generally light. Winds
today will be light from the southeast and then light and variable
tonight. We have a fair amount of high and mid clouds across the
area this morning. The trend is for those clouds to lift, thin and
move out of the area by the afternoon. Ceilings tonight will be
unlimited.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We will have low fire weather concerns over the next seven days.
Upper level high pressure will build across the region this
weekend and that will warm our temperatures and keep our surface
winds pretty light. Despite the ridge aloft, we will continue to
see a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day,
especially in area mountains. Our hottest days look to be Tuesday
and Wednesday of next week. Moisture, clouds and cooler
temperatures spread across the area toward the end of next week.
Min RH`s in the lowlands will range from 15 to 25% and in the
mountains the min RH`s will range from 25 to 40%. Ventilation
rates over the next couple of days will range from good to very
good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  97  76 101  79 /   0  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            90  66  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               95  71  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
Alamogordo               92  67  96  69 /  20  10  20  10
Cloudcroft               69  51  72  53 /  40  20  30  10
Truth or Consequences    90  71  94  73 /  40  40  30  20
Silver City              88  66  91  68 /  60  40  40  20
Deming                   95  70  98  71 /  20  20  10  20
Lordsburg                96  69  98  71 /  40  30  40  30
West El Paso Metro       95  73  98  77 /  10  10  10  10
Dell City                94  68  98  70 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Hancock             97  68 101  72 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               88  68  92  71 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   97  71 101  75 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             94  69  97  72 /  10  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           93  76  97  78 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            93  67  97  69 /  20  20  10  10
Hatch                    96  68  99  71 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                 96  71  98  75 /  10  10  10  20
Orogrande                93  68  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  81  55  83  57 /  40  10  30  10
Mescalero                80  55  83  57 /  40  20  30  10
Timberon                 78  53  82  55 /  30  10  20  10
Winston                  83  59  85  61 /  70  50  50  20
Hillsboro                90  68  93  70 /  50  30  40  20
Spaceport                92  65  96  67 /  20  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             86  60  89  63 /  70  40  50  20
Hurley                   89  65  93  65 /  40  30  30  20
Cliff                    95  64  98  66 /  70  40  40  20
Mule Creek               87  68  91  69 /  80  40  50  20
Faywood                  89  67  93  68 /  40  30  30  20
Animas                   95  68  98  71 /  40  30  40  30
Hachita                  94  68  97  71 /  20  20  30  30
Antelope Wells           93  68  96  69 /  40  30  50  50
Cloverdale               89  66  91  67 /  40  40  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415-
     416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice