437
FXUS64 KEPZ 210919
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
319 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Quiet weather conditions will continue for most of the area mainly
west of the Rio Grande through the end of the period. There will
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the Otero and
Hudspeth counties today and early to the middle of next week. The
temperatures east of the Divide will be above the normal today,
but will cool to below the normal areawide Sunday through
at least Wednesday. A back door cold front will move in overnight
Sunday into Monday morning aiding in cooler temperatures on
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Currently, conditions are mostly quiet with just band of
virga/light showers across the central CWA. This will continue
towards the east through the early morning hours. For today, any
precipitation that occurs will be mainly east of the Rio Grande
as a trough of low pressure over Arizona will eject across
portions of Colorado and New Mexico. We will be mainly on the dry
side mainly the base of the low/trough. The trough axis is
expected to past through the area during the day. Also, a boundary
will accompany this system that will move from west to east late
in the afternoon into this evening and beyond. The winds will
begin to pick up, becoming breezy to low end windy due to a 250
and 700mb moving through the area during the day. With mainly a
southwesterly to westerly flow, the high temperatures this
afternoon will be above the normal mainly east of the Continental
Divide. For tonight, the winds will decrease as the jet weakens.
Also, dry air will move into the area limiting the rain chance
east of the Rio Grande. The flow at the surface with shift to the
northwest; thus, the low temperatures on Sunday morning will be
below the average for most of the area. Troughing will remain over
our area, which will allow for the high temperatures to be on the
cool side, something we have not seen for a long time. The
temperatures by the second half of this weekend will be at or
below the normal for this time of the year.

By Sunday night a back door cold front will begin to move in
across the eastern CWA. A surface ridge will continue to deepen
across the the South Plain through the early morning hours on
Monday. The front may reach east of or along the Continental
Divide by Monday morning. Due to this, much of the area will
continue to see temperatures below the normal. There maybe a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms behind the front
across the Hudspeth and El Paso County Monday afternoon into the
evening hours. For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather
conditions are expected across much of the area. There maybe a
few showers across the Otero and Hudspeth county Tuesday through
Wednesday as a shortwave trough move in across the eastern New
Mexico and western Texas. The bulk of the moisture and
precipitation will be mainly outside of our CWA. The best chance
for precipitation will be in the Sacramento Mountains and eastern
Hudspeth county. High pressure will build in toward the second
half of the week allowing for drier air to move in and the
temperatures to gradually warm a degree or two each consecutive
day through the next Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions can be expected through the period. A
thin band of showers in the form of virga is ongoing moving from
SW to NE from KDMN to KTCS. Hi-res models have been suggesting
light showers popping up over KELP and KLRU from around 09Z to
around sunrise. The current band of clouds over the area will push
west to east tonight becoming SKC by late morning. Breezy winds
15-22G25-32KT should be expected by the mid-afternoon hours
tomorrow with dry conditions for terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For today, there will be a low chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly east of the Rio Grande. The winds will be
breezy to windy and temperatures above the normal mainly east of
the Continental Divide. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For
Sunday, dry air will move in. The 20ft winds will be light to
breezy and temperatures below the normal. For the rest of the
period, conditions will be mostly quiet except across Otero and
Hudsepth counties. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the aforementioned counties Monday afternoon through
Wednesday. Also ,a backdoor cold front is forecast to move into
the area overnight Sunday into Monday morning allowing for the
temperatures to continue to be below the normal at least through
the middle of next week. With that said, there will be no fire
weather concerns across the entire zones through the period.

The min RHs today will be between 14 and 25% in the lowlands and
between 25 and 45% in the mountains. The min RHs on Sunday will
decrease by 5 to 10% areawide. The ventilation rates will be
mainly excellent today then poor to good on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  63  89  63 /  10   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            89  60  85  57 /  20  10   0  10
Las Cruces               89  56  86  57 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               89  54  85  54 /  20   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               66  40  63  38 /  40   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    84  53  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              75  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   87  51  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                82  51  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       91  62  87  63 /  10   0   0  10
Dell City                93  58  88  57 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             95  61  90  61 /  10   0   0  10
Loma Linda               84  57  81  55 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   93  59  88  62 /  10   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             89  56  86  59 /  10   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           89  60  85  59 /  10   0   0  10
Jornada Range            87  53  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    88  53  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 88  56  86  58 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  55  83  55 /  20   0   0  10
Mayhill                  79  45  72  42 /  40   0   0  10
Mescalero                77  44  74  43 /  40   0   0  10
Timberon                 76  45  72  41 /  30   0   0  10
Winston                  76  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                82  50  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                85  50  84  50 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             74  41  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   79  46  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    82  44  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               74  48  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  79  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   84  52  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  50  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  50  82  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira