951
FXUS64 KEPZ 142326
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
526 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Quiet weather conditions through much of the period as the heat
continues for the Borderland at least through early next week. The
temperatures in the lowlands will be mostly in the triple digits.
The winds will be light to breezy each afternoon. Toward the end
of the period, there will be a chance for areawide showers and
thunderstorm, which would allow for the temperatures to decrease
to below the normal by then.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Currently, there are some clouds over the area with a few showers
moving through. The heaviest showers are in the Sacramento
Mountains. The winds are light to breezy with the temperatures on
the hot side. For tonight, any storms that continue on after the
sun sets will diminish by this evening. A short wave trough that
brought somewhat of an active pattern today will exit our region
while entering into the Plains. High pressure will begin to re-
establish itself across the far Southwest by Saturday morning. The
skies will become mostly clear and with the winds light to
breezy. With that said, the low temperatures on Saturday morning
will be mainly above the average. For Saturday, a flat ridge will
be across the aforementioned area with mainly zonal flow aloft,
Conditions will be dry with the flow near the surface mainly from
the west. Due to this, the temperatures in the lowlands will be
in the triple digits. Sunday will be another hot day the high
pressure centering across Baja California. El Paso is expected to
to see the high temperature around 106 degrees.

By early next week, this high pressure ridge will begin to
breakdown slightly as a trough of low pressure digs in from
across the northwest. The temperatures will still be above the
average despite a slight lowering in the height field. The flow
will be generally out from the west and southwest; thus, the high
temperature for El Paso will still be around 105 degrees with
many of its surrounding areas in the triple digits. The trough
will continue to dig across the Southwest and the dryline to east
of us. This will allow the heat to continue across the
Borderland. By the middle of next week, the initial low/trough
will exit into the Canadian Territories from across the
Northwest. However, it will leave begin a secondary trough across
the Southwest. With this trough in place and the dryline beginning
to move westward, moisture will move back into our area. As a
result of this, there will be a chance for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon through the end of next week across
most of the area. This will cause our temperatures to cool to
below the climatological normal around the same period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies
SCT150-200, skies will become FEW250 to SKC from west to east
after 03-04Z. Winds breezy out of SW at 8-12 knots with gusts to
20 knots through the remainder of the late afternoon and early
evening. Winds will decrease after sunset, becoming light and VRB
through the overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, there will be a few showers in
the lowlands and thunderstorms especially in the Sacramento
Mountains. Tonight recovery will be poor to excellent. For
Saturday, drier air will move in. The 20ft winds will be light to
breezy and variable in direction with the temperatures above the
normal. Saturday overnight recovery will be poor to fair. For
Sunday, dry air will remain in place with no precipitation
in sight. The 20ft winds will be generally breezy a variable in
direction with above average temperatures. For the rest of the
period, quiet conditions are expected with breezy afternoon winds
and mostly above normal temperatures. However, the temperatures
will gradually decrease each consecutive day. With that being
said, fire weather conditions will be near critical through the
period.

The min RHs on Saturday will be generally in the single digits
across much of the area except for in the Sacramento mountains
where they will be between 16 and 17%. The min RHs on Sunday will
be below 15% across the entire zones. The ventilation rates will
be very good to excellent on Saturday then mostly excellent on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 105  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69 100  68 101 /  20   0  10   0
Las Cruces               69 102  69 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67  99  69 103 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  77  55  79 /  30  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  97  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              61  93  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   63 101  64 103 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                63  99  65 100 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74 101  72 103 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                70 103  65 105 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             70 105  67 107 /  20   0  10   0
Loma Linda               68  95  68  97 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   71 104  69 106 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68 100  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           74 100  77 102 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            63 100  66 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    63 101  65 104 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 69 101  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                70  99  69 101 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  54  89  59  91 /  30  10   0  10
Mescalero                54  87  58  90 /  20  10   0   0
Timberon                 54  86  57  88 /  20   0   0   0
Winston                  54  91  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                64  96  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                60  98  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  94  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   59  95  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    56 102  59 102 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               61  95  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  62  95  64  96 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   61 100  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  61 100  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           63  99  64 100 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  94  63  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

     Heat Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418-
     419-423-424.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>410-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers