878
FXUS64 KEPZ 131139
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
539 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Strong high pressure, directly over the Borderland today, will
make for the hottest day of the year. With locations across the
lowlands seeing triple digits for most of the afternoon, the area
is under a heat advisory, with El Paso and the Rio Grande valley
in an excessive heat warning. Highs between 105 and 110 are
expected across the lowlands, with highs averaging 10 degrees
above normal. Hot conditions continue through the weekend, well
into next week. A weak trough will pass Friday to kick up the
winds a bit, and bring a bit of moisture. Our area mountains may
see some showers or storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Today is expected to be our hottest day of the year, with a high
pressure ridge directly overhead. This feature will build heat
over the area, with our entire lowlands topping out this afternoon
with temperatures ranging from 105 to 110. These temperatures
support the continuation of Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings for today and tonight. Winds will be generally light.

Friday, the upper low over the N Baja, will move across the
Southwestern U.S. and pass over the Four Corners as a relatively
minor upper trough. This feature largely passes to our north and
will raise our winds, but not in a major way. Most of the forecast
area will see nothing more than afternoon breezy conditions.
However, we may see marginally windy conditions over the Gila
region, which will be in the location of the tightest pressure
gradients aloft and at the surface. The tough will introduce a bit
of upper and mid level moisture with it. The low levels will
remain mostly dry. With the added moisture we will see some
increased clouds and our mountain zones (esp. the Gila region) may
see some isolated showers/thunderstorms Friday afternoon. The
breakdown of the upper high, along with the added moisture and
clouds, will allow temperatures to back off a bit, but still
remain above 100 for most of the area lowlands.

After the trough exits into the Plains Saturday morning, ridging
tries to return, but looks to stay well west, with a more zonal
pattern back over the region. This will keep the region warm and
dry, with lighter winds for the weekend. Next week we see a broad
upper trough develop and linger over the Western U.S. This will
keep us mostly dry, and warm, with somewhat breezy afternoon
conditions. We may see some SE low level flow begin to move Gulf
moisture back west and over our area. We will be looking at POP
and storm chances for our area after mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions at all terminal through the period. Very warm
temperatures will make for high density altitude. Winds generally
light and somewhat variable. Skies mostly clear with some mid and
upper clouds. No restrictions to vsby.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot and dry, under high pressure today, but not with a lot of
winds as high pressure aloft still controls our weather.
Temperatures will top out 10+ degrees above normal. Minimum RH
will drop well into the single-digits range. Not a lot of wind
today.

Tomorrow, Friday, we will have an upper trough lift across the
Four Corners. This feature will cause some stronger winds across
the area, but mostly over the Gila Region, across northern Grant,
and Catron counties. With the continuation of warm and very dry
conditions, coupled with the stronger winds, we will upgrade the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for zones 110, but let
the watch drop over the Bootheel and lowlands of 110 due to the
lesser winds expected there. However, the entire region will be
very dry, and breezy, elevating conditions.

Winds will back off Saturday, but we continue quite warm and very
dry. High pressure will attempt to rebound, but a broad Western
U.S. trough looks to build and linger to our west. This will try
to draw in some moisture from the east, for mid week next week,
over our eastern areas, but still too early to be confident in
that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 110  81 106  78 /  10  10  20  20
Sierra Blanca           102  71  99  70 /  10  10  20  30
Las Cruces              108  74 104  70 /   0  10  20  10
Alamogordo              106  74 101  68 /   0  10  30  20
Cloudcroft               82  58  78  52 /  10  10  60  30
Truth or Consequences   104  73  98  69 /   0  20  30  10
Silver City              99  68  94  62 /  10  20  30   0
Deming                  107  69 104  65 /   0  10  20  10
Lordsburg               105  71 102  64 /  10  20  20   0
West El Paso Metro      107  78 104  75 /  10  10  20  10
Dell City               106  71 102  68 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Hancock            109  73 106  70 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda              101  73  98  70 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                  110  76 106  73 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa            107  73 103  69 /   0  10  20  10
White Sands HQ          107  79 101  77 /  10  10  30  20
Jornada Range           107  71 102  66 /   0  10  30  10
Hatch                   108  70 104  65 /   0  10  30  10
Columbus                107  75 104  70 /   0  10  10  10
Orogrande               105  74 101  70 /  10  10  30  20
Mayhill                  94  61  88  55 /  10  10  60  30
Mescalero                94  60  88  55 /  10  10  50  30
Timberon                 91  58  87  55 /  10  10  50  20
Winston                  96  62  88  56 /  10  20  50  10
Hillsboro               102  71  96  66 /  10  20  40  10
Spaceport               105  68  99  62 /   0  10  30  10
Lake Roberts             98  63  93  58 /  10  20  30   0
Hurley                  102  66  96  60 /  10  10  20   0
Cliff                   107  66 102  58 /  10  10  20   0
Mule Creek              101  71  96  63 /  10  20  20   0
Faywood                 101  69  96  64 /  10  10  20  10
Animas                  105  71 102  63 /  10  10  10   0
Hachita                 105  71 101  64 /   0  10  10   0
Antelope Wells          105  71 102  65 /  10  10  10   0
Cloverdale              100  71  96  64 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-403>411-414-416-
     417-425-427>429.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for NMZ110.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird