379
FXUS64 KEPZ 110815
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
215 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Hot weather will continue through the entire period with Thursday
expected to be the hottest day. Except for the Sacramento
Mountains, little to no rain chances are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

We hope everyone took advantage of the "cool" weather yesterday
because it may be awhile before we are that "cool" again. UL low,
centered near Lubbock, is continuing to pull away while a large
UL low spins off the Baja Coast. As the Low to our east continues
to move east, ridging will build over us, ahead of the Baja low.
Temperatures will climb each day with Thursday expected to be the
hottest day as the ~594 dm high centers itself near El Paso. Highs
will range 98 to 102 in the lowlands today, 101 to 106 on
Wednesday, and 104 to 109 on Thursday. El Paso has an 8% chance of
reaching 110 according to the latest NBM. An excessive heat watch
is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Friday night. Day
shift will take another look and decide on what gets upgraded to
an advisory and a warning and when, as necessary. During this
time, just enough moisture will be available for the Sacs to see
at least isolated thunderstorms with the rest of the area expected
to be dry.

On Friday, the Baja low ill have weakened into a trough as it
absorbs into the main flow, cross the Four Corners by evening. NBM
shows low pops, but GFS and Euro show moisture swept out too
quickly for the trough`s dynamics to give us precip chances. The
trough will bring an increase in winds, especially for the Gila.
This area will need to be monitored for fire concerns. With the
loss of heights, temperatures will come down a couple of degrees.
The UL ridge begins to build in the trough`s wake to our east. We
are still sufficiently in the trough`s influence for highs to
drop a couple degrees more for Saturday, but temperatures begin
climbing again as we head into Sunday and onward to the new work
week as we sit in between a trough to our west and a ridge to our
east as deep SW flow draws in hot air from Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period with continued
clearing of skies. North winds will shift northeast/easterly tonight
becoming light and variable. Light winds can be expected tomorrow
morning and through much of the afternoon where speeds will
generally be AOB 10KT with the possibility of low end gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Very dry and hot weather will continue through the period. Shallow
moisture has moved through the area, however, so overnight
recoveries will be a bit better than seen previous nights through
this morning. The dry line will continue to make appearances for
areas mainly east of the Rio Grande for subsequent overnight
periods. Otherwise, very dry afternoons are expected as min RH
values fall into the single digits. Enough moisture will linger in
the Sacramento Mountains allowing at least isolated
thunderstorms but chances for precipitation will be minimal
elsewhere. Winds will top out around 10 MPH each afternoon through
Thursday. On Friday, a passing short wave will increase winds
especially for the Gila, creating near critical conditions. Fire
headlines may be needed in future updates. Venting is expected to
be good to very good today and tomorrow, improving to very good to
excellent by Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 102  76 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            95  67  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces              100  70 105  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               97  66 101  69 /  10  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               74  51  78  55 /  20  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    97  69 101  72 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              92  64  96  66 /  10  10   0   0
Deming                  100  65 104  66 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                98  65 103  66 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       99  73 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                99  66 102  68 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            102  67 105  70 /   0   0  10  10
Loma Linda               92  67  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  101  70 106  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             98  68 103  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           98  75 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            98  64 102  66 /   0  10   0   0
Hatch                   100  64 104  66 /   0  10   0   0
Columbus                 99  69 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                97  69 101  69 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  84  54  89  59 /  20  10  20   0
Mescalero                84  55  89  58 /  20  10  10   0
Timberon                 83  54  88  56 /  20  10  10   0
Winston                  89  59  94  61 /  10  10  10   0
Hillsboro                95  66  99  69 /  10  10  10   0
Spaceport                97  62 101  64 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             92  59  96  62 /  10  10   0   0
Hurley                   95  61  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   100  61 105  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               95  66  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  94  65  98  67 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   99  65 103  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  98  64 102  67 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           98  66 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               95  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for TXZ418>424.

NM...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for NMZ401-404>407-409>411-417-427>429.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown