386
FXUS64 KEPZ 120812
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
212 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Very hot conditions will continue through much of the period with
the hottest temperatures expected for Thursday. The forecast
remains dry for much of the area. The exception will be each
afternoon through Friday for the Sacramento Mountains with some
storms also possible in the Gila on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

UL ridge is building across the Desert Southwest. That means
temperatures will climb, peaking tomorrow as the 597 dm H500 high
centers over us. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are
in effect through Friday and will likely need to be extended
beyond that. The ridge will be pushed east by the ejection of the
low off the Baja Coast on Friday. Winds will be breezy as a result,
especially west of the Continental Divide where fire danger will
be a concern. NBM continues to keep enough moisture for storms in
the Sacs this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. On Friday, NBM
spreads POPs nearly area wide, but no deterministic member nor
the GEFS support this solution. POPs were scaled back accordingly
except for in the mountains.

A flat pattern is expected for Saturday before a ridge begins to
build to our east and a trough deepens to our west. Hot SW flow
will set-up for our CWA, keeping us dry while temperatures climb
again, peaking on Sunday. Loss of UL heights by Monday will cause
temperatures to start a "cooling" trend, sending highs closer to
normal by mid-week but still plenty hot.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC. Winds
will be light (4-7 knots) and generally VRB through the overnight
timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Wed Jun 12 2024

We will remain hot and dry, but enough moisture will remain over
the Sacramento Mountains to allow isolated thunderstorms with
gusty winds and dry lightning the main concern. Elsewhere, min RH
values will drop to 10 percent or less with very hot temperatures.
Winds will stop out around 10 MPH the next couple of afternoons.
On Friday, a passing trough will increase winds ranging 15 to 20
MPH for areas west of the Rio Grande and 10 to 15 MPH for areas
east of the Rio. Areas west of the Rio Grande (Zones 110 and 111)
are under a Fire Weather Watch as a result for critical fire
conditions.

Venting will range good to very good through Thursday, increasing
to excellent for Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  78 110  81 107 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            70 103  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               72 108  75 104 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               69 105  72 102 /  10  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               56  81  57  77 /  10  10  10  40
Truth or Consequences    71 104  73  99 /  10   0  20  20
Silver City              67  98  68  94 /   0   0  20  20
Deming                   68 107  70 104 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                68 105  72 102 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro       76 107  79 104 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                68 106  69 102 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Hancock             71 109  73 106 /  10  10  10  10
Loma Linda               71 100  73  97 /   0  10  10  10
Fabens                   73 109  76 106 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             71 107  74 103 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           77 105  80 102 /   0  10  10  10
Jornada Range            68 106  69 102 /  10   0  10  10
Hatch                    67 107  70 104 /  10   0  10  10
Columbus                 72 107  76 104 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                70 105  74 102 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  60  95  60  88 /  10  20  10  50
Mescalero                59  92  59  87 /  10  10  10  40
Timberon                 57  89  58  87 /  10  10  10  40
Winston                  62  95  63  90 /  10  10  20  40
Hillsboro                70 101  70  97 /  10   0  20  20
Spaceport                64 103  67  99 /  10   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             62  97  63  93 /   0   0  20  20
Hurley                   65 101  65  97 /   0   0  20  10
Cliff                    62 108  65 102 /   0   0  20  10
Mule Creek               67 100  69  96 /   0   0  10  10
Faywood                  68 100  69  96 /   0   0  20  10
Animas                   68 105  71 102 /   0  10  10   0
Hachita                  68 105  72 102 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           69 104  70 101 /   0  10  10   0
Cloverdale               70 100  69  96 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for
     TXZ420>422.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Saturday
     for TXZ418-419-423-424.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-
     419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ401-
     403>411-414-416-417-427>429.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NMZ110-111.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown