437
FXUS64 KEPZ 270934
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
334 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Active conditions will persist again today. This pattern will
likely continue through next week. The main impact from the storms
will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and
strong gusty winds. The temperatures especially in the lowlands
will continue to be in the triple digits through the period, but
will be somewhat cooler next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Currently, the skies are overcast with showers and a few
thunderstorms across parts of the CWA. The temperatures are mild,
and the winds are light to breezy. Some of these showers will
continue through the early morning hours while dissipating. For
today, there will be slight break in active weather conditions by
around mid morning. However, with heating around noon, and an
abundance of moisture and weakness within a ridge of high pressure
that appear to flatten out, showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the mountains at first and then across the lowland
areas along outflow boundaries. The winds will be light to breezy;
however, in and around thunderstorms the winds can be windy. The
main concerns with these storms will be heavy rainfall that could
lead to flash flooding. Also, as mentioned before, the winds
could strong from strong downdrafts. This ridge of high pressure
will be centered across the South Plains, which will allow for the
temperatures especially in the lowlands to still be above the
normal, but they will not be as warm as they were yesterday
afternoon. Storm coverage today will not be as they were
yesterday. The coverage today will be a little less than they were
yesterday. These storms will continue at least through the
midnight hours. As with yesterday`s storms, some of the storms
could possibly linger through early morning hours on Friday. The
air will be humid and with cloud coverage; thus, the low
temperatures on Friday morning will be above the normal. By
Friday, the ridge definitely flattens out and centering across
eastern Texas. There will be a few storms developing in the
mountains; however, Friday should be a less active day. With less
storm coverage, the high temperatures on Friday will begin to
increase a couple of degrees from what they will be today despite
the center of the ride across eastern Texas. The temperature for
EL Paso will be at or very near the Heat Advisory criteria on
Friday.


By Saturday, the center of this ridge will be across the the
Lower Mississippi Valley. With this set up in place, showers and
thunderstorms will be possible in the mountains and across areas
west of the Rio Grande. The temperatures on Saturday will be the
warmest of the weekend with triple digit heat for much of the
lowland areas. By the latter half of the weekend, the ridge
amplifies across the Plains while it centers across eastern
Oklahoma and northeastern Texas. As it does, it will enhances
moisture across the area and with diurnal heating showers and
thunderstorms will be likely across much of the area. However,
the the bulk of the storm coverage will be to areas west of the
Rio Grande. This pattern will continue through the much of next
week as monsoonal moisture continue to move in and be focused
over Arizona and New Mexico bringing daily chances for active
weather conditions. The ridge will maneuver a bit from across the
South Plains to the Southeast. Also, toward the end of next week
another ridge of high pressure from the Pacific west will build in
across the western Continental US, which will not decrease our
chances for precipitation as of yet. With lots of active weather
next week, the lowland temperatures in the lowlands will be in
the mid to upper 90s and lower one hundreds.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Lingering showers and weak thunderstorms continue over the region
tonight but are currently not near local TAF sites with the
exception of KDMN which is near a decaying thunderstorm complex.
Storm and shower activity will diminish through 12Z with minimal
impacts to TAF sites except for brief light showers possible. Mostly
cloudy conditions will continue after 12z, which slow the pace of
thunderstorm development for tomorrow afternoon after 18z.  Storms
will eventually develop and may impact mainly KLRU, KTCS, and KDMN
after 21z. TSTM development will be less likely near KELP but may
develop in the mountains to the east aft 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue today especially in the
afternoon and the evening. The main impacts from these storms
will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and gusty
erratic winds. Flooding will definitely be a concern across burn
scar areas. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and the
temperatures above the normal. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue at least through midnight. Tonight recovery will be good
to excellent. For Friday, some moisture will be in place; however,
the chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease. The best
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be in the mountains and
in the Bootheel. The 20ft winds will continue to be light to
breezy except in and around thunderstorms with the temperatures
above the average. Thursday overnight recovery will be fair to
good. For the rest of the period, active weather conditions will
persist with breezy winds and at and above normal temperatures.
With that being said, there will be no fire weather concerns
throughout the period.

The min RHs today will be between 19 and 25% in the lowlands and
between 30 and 45% in the mountains. The min RHs on Friday will
decrease 3 to 6% across the entire zones. The ventilation rates
will be poor to very good today then poor to excellent on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 103  81 105  82 /  40  60  30  40
Sierra Blanca            98  72  98  73 /  30  40  40  50
Las Cruces              101  75 103  78 /  50  60  20  20
Alamogordo               99  70 100  73 /  50  40  20  10
Cloudcroft               76  54  77  57 /  70  40  50  20
Truth or Consequences    97  73  98  76 /  60  50  20  20
Silver City              94  67  93  69 /  70  40  30  20
Deming                  102  73 102  75 /  60  70  30  20
Lordsburg               101  72 100  73 /  50  40  30  20
West El Paso Metro      100  79 102  80 /  40  60  30  40
Dell City               102  75 103  74 /  30  30  30  30
Fort Hancock            104  75 105  76 /  50  40  30  50
Loma Linda               94  72  96  73 /  50  50  30  30
Fabens                  102  77 104  78 /  50  60  30  40
Santa Teresa             99  75 101  76 /  40  60  30  30
White Sands HQ           99  78 100  81 /  50  60  30  30
Jornada Range            99  72 100  74 /  50  70  20  20
Hatch                   101  72 103  75 /  50  60  30  20
Columbus                 99  76 102  79 /  40  70  30  30
Orogrande                99  73 101  74 /  50  50  30  20
Mayhill                  88  61  88  61 /  70  40  60  20
Mescalero                86  59  88  62 /  70  40  40  10
Timberon                 86  57  85  59 /  60  40  50  20
Winston                  89  61  90  64 /  80  50  40  10
Hillsboro                94  69  95  74 /  70  60  40  20
Spaceport                97  69  99  71 /  60  50  20  20
Lake Roberts             92  62  93  64 /  80  50  30  10
Hurley                   97  67  97  69 /  60  50  20  20
Cliff                   102  66 102  67 /  60  30  20  10
Mule Creek               96  69  95  70 /  50  30  20  10
Faywood                  94  69  96  71 /  70  60  30  20
Animas                  101  71 100  72 /  40  50  40  20
Hachita                 101  71 100  73 /  50  70  40  30
Antelope Wells           99  70  98  71 /  70  70  60  40
Cloverdale               94  66  93  67 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419-
     423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ410-411.

     Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira