441
FXUS64 KEPZ 241019
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
419 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures will get a few degrees warmer today and even a few
degrees warmer on Tuesday. There will be a slight chance for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms both days mainly in area
mountains and locations west of the Rio Grande. The hot
temperatures will continue on Wednesday, but we will also see a
better chance for rain Wednesday afternoon and evening. We won`t
be as hot for the end of the week into the weekend with a
continued chance for rain each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level high pressure was continuing to build into the region.
The ridge will continue to limit our afternoon and evening
thunderstorms both today and Tuesday. Thunderstorms, like
yesterday, will mainly be confined to area mountains and locations
west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees
above average. A heat advisory is in effect for today for El Paso
and the Rio Grande valley of Hudspeth county and then as the
upper level ridge becomes centered over New Mexico, the advisory
will expand to include most of Dona Ana county on Tuesday.

The forecast for Wednesday is an interesting one. On the one hand
the upper level ridge will still be centered over New Mexico, but
a short wave trough will dash across northern New Mexico. At the
surface an east push will set up a convergence zone centered
mainly on the Rio Grande valley. The NBM has consistently shown
hot high temperatures. For EL Paso the 50 percentile high
temperature is 106 and the 75 percentile high temperature is 108.
But at the same time, the NBM is also showing good chance for
clouds and rainfall. Probabilistic models are showing chances for
0.25 of rain ranging from 20% to 50% and if I drop that value to
0.01 the percentages jump up to 70% to 90%. The two forecasts
don`t seem to go together. What I suspect will happen is that as
the upper level trough slides across northern New Mexico, it will
weaken the upper level ridge some and the surface, the east push
will bring in some more moisture as precipitable water values
(PW`s) rise from 1.1 inches on Tuesday to almost 1.5 inches on
Wednesday. When you add in high temperatures running 5 to 10
degrees above average you will see a good chance for afternoon and
evening thunderstorms. Convection may be some what delayed as
initially the subsidence associated with the upper level ridge
will win out, but as the heat builds and combines with the excess
moisture, the instability and buoyancy will overcome the upper
level ridge.

On Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will retreat back to
the southeast as another upper level short wave trough moves
across New Mexico. PW values will continue to be elevated above
1.3 so we will see another chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. High temperatures both days will come down a few
degrees, but not as much we would probably like. Much of the
lowlands will still be near or a degree or two above 100.

As we head into next weekend, the upper level ridge will be
centered over the southeast U.S. which is in a good position to
push more moisture into the region. Initially the moisture push
looks to be along the New Mexico/Arizona border but much of our
region will see PW`s of 1.2 to 1.5. We will continue to be warm
with high temperatures running a few degrees above average, with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VMC overnight with lingering showers at KTCS diminishing. Skies
generally clear at KELP, SCT-BKN120 and clearing by sunrise across
southwest NM. Surface winds from the NE 030-080 AOB 6 knots. Light
SE surface flow tomorrow with skies FEW-SCT110 in the early
afternoon. TS development focused across the high terrain and
western New Mexico. Best chances for direct TS impacts at KTCS thus
PROB30 added to the later period. Gusty outflows affecting most
local terminals around sunset tomorrow. Will amend as needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Fire weather concerns continue to trend lower as we will continue
to see a chance for rain each day through the coming weekend.
Initially rain chances the next couple of days will be limited to
area mountains and locations west of the Rio Grande, but by
midweek through next weekend, we will see at least a slight chance
for rain across the whole area. Strong and gusty outflow winds
will be possible each day. These outflow winds can travel long
distances from their parent thunderstorms. Away from storms, the
winds should not be much of a factor this week. Min RH`s the next
couple will range from 15 to 25% in the lowlands and 30 to 40% in
the mountains, but for the end of the week into next weekend we
will see min RH`s at 20% or higher across the region. We will see
good to excellent RH recoveries at night and ventilation rates
will range form fair to good the next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 104  82 107  83 /  10  20  20  40
Sierra Blanca            96  72  99  75 /  10  10  20  40
Las Cruces              102  77 105  78 /  10  20  20  30
Alamogordo               99  73 103  74 /  10  10  20  20
Cloudcroft               76  56  78  57 /  20  10  40  30
Truth or Consequences    97  76  99  77 /  30  20  40  20
Silver City              93  69  93  69 /  50  40  60  30
Deming                  101  74 103  75 /  20  30  40  30
Lordsburg                99  72 100  76 /  40  40  60  40
West El Paso Metro      101  79 104  82 /  10  20  20  40
Dell City                99  74 104  75 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Hancock            103  74 105  77 /  10  10  20  40
Loma Linda               94  73  98  75 /  10  10  20  30
Fabens                  103  77 106  79 /  10  10  20  40
Santa Teresa            100  74 103  77 /  10  20  20  40
White Sands HQ           99  81 103  83 /  10  20  30  30
Jornada Range            99  72 103  74 /  10  20  30  30
Hatch                   101  74 104  75 /  20  20  40  30
Columbus                101  78 103  81 /  20  30  40  40
Orogrande                98  74 102  77 /  10  10  20  30
Mayhill                  86  61  89  62 /  20  10  50  20
Mescalero                86  60  90  61 /  20  10  40  20
Timberon                 84  59  87  60 /  20  10  40  20
Winston                  89  63  90  63 /  70  30  60  20
Hillsboro                95  73  98  74 /  40  30  50  30
Spaceport                98  70 101  72 /  20  20  30  20
Lake Roberts             91  64  92  64 /  60  30  60  30
Hurley                   95  68  96  69 /  40  30  60  30
Cliff                   100  66 102  67 /  50  40  60  20
Mule Creek               93  69  95  70 /  60  40  60  20
Faywood                  95  71  97  71 /  30  30  50  30
Animas                   99  72 100  75 /  50  40  60  40
Hachita                  99  73 100  75 /  30  50  50  40
Antelope Wells           98  71  99  73 /  50  50  60  60
Cloverdale               92  67  92  70 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for NMZ410-
     411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice