Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
794
FNUS74 KEPZ 120158
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Antone Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
758 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on June 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will be Elevated on Wednesday. For tonight cooling
temperatures along will lead to Fair overnight RH recoveries into the upper
20s to 30s. Winds light at 5 to 10 mph and generally terrain/diurnal driven
through the overnight and morning hours. On Wednesday, Winds will generally
be north to northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 to 20 mph (unshelterd
and exposed locations). Mostly clear skies through the morning will give way to
partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. A very slight chance of a shower or
thunderstorm will be possible (5-10 percent chance). High temperatures on
Wednesday will top out between 85 to 90 degrees with Min RH values of 8 to 14
percent. Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions on Thursday with
Critical fire weather conditions on Friday. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for Friday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear to partly cloudy(20-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent, becoming 0 percent after midnight.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 55 to 60.
Max humidity........27 to 37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
becoming light and generally terrain/diurnal driven
during the overnight and morning hours.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........40 20 5 5 2
Weather cov.....S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).15 10 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............67 61 59 57 56
RH..............27 29 31 33 35
20 ft wind......W 5 W 4 W 3 W 3 NW 3
20 ft wind gust.10 9 8 8 8
Mix hgt (ft)....300 200 200 100 100
Transport wind..NW 9 NW 9 NW 9 NW 10 NW 10
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..27 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) then becoming partly sunny
(50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 85 to 90.
Min humidity........8 to 14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in
the late morning and afternoon, gusts up to 15
to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 14600 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16800 knot-ft) increasing to very good
(130900 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........2 2 1 11 11 55
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 66 75 81 86 88
RH..............37 31 22 16 12 10
20 ft wind......NW 4 NW 4 NW 5 NW 6 NW 7 NW 9
20 ft wind gust.9 9 10 13 15 18
Mix hgt (ft)....100 1100 12700 12700 14600 14600
Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9 17 131 131 134 134
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 57 to 62.
Max humidity........25 to 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming
light and terrain/diurnal driven during the overnight
and morning timeframe.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (106300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(2100 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........56 32 9 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............84 71 65 61
RH..............11 16 19 23
20 FT wind......W 7G18 W 7G16 NW 7G17 NW 7G16
Mix hgt (ft)....11800 11800 200 100
Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 NW 18 NW 14
Haines index....6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..106 106 3 2
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 87 to 91.
Min humidity........10 to 15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 6 mph shifting to the
northeast late in the morning, then shifting to
the south 6 to 7 mph with gusts to around 20
mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 15700 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North around 13 mph shifting to the south 9 to
10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (25100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (110000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (138500
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........2 7 24
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............59 77 88
RH..............25 15 10
20 FT wind......NW 6G15 NE 6G15 SE 8G17
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 15400 15700
Transport wind..N 13 SE 9 S 10
Haines index....6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25 110 139
Ventrate Cat....POOR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 80s. West winds
around 8 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the lower 80s.
Northwest winds around 8 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West
winds around 7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415987.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov