Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
439
FNUS74 KEPZ 231707
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for NORMANDY FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1107 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Modest southeast winds are expected today, shifting westerly
tonight as drainage winds develop with good overnight recovery. A
shower or two is possible this evening. For Monday, scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the day. Storm
chances increase even more around midweek as the moisture plume
moves into the region. Outside of outflows, winds will be generally
light from the west through midweek. Temperatures will warm up to
above normal early this week.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (55100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........41 41 55 46 46 49
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC S CHC NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 50 20 20 10
LAL.............5 5 4 1 1 1
Temp............90 82 77 74 72 70
RH..............25 38 52 59 64 68
20 ft wind......SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 W 6
20 ft wind gust.14 14 14 12 12 9
Mix hgt (ft)....7900 1900 800 800 400 400
Transport wind..SW 12 SW 12 SW 11 SW 11 W 8 W 8
Haines index....3 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..55 25 5 5 3 3
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Showers
and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4 until 1500, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......7500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph shifting to the north around 9
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (61000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........50 50 17 28 28 46
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 30 60 70
LAL.............1 1 1 4 5 5
Temp............69 71 80 88 91 91
RH..............70 68 51 35 30 28
20 ft wind......W 6 W 6 W 7 W 7 W 7 W 8
20 ft wind gust.9 9 12 10 10 14
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1400 3100 6100 7500 7500
Transport wind..W 8 W 8 NW 7 NW 7 N 9 N 9
Haines index....2 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 11 25 35 51 61
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Thunderstorms
likely early in the evening. Showers likely in
the evening. Chance of thunderstorms late in
the evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................5 until 2100, then 4 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (61000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........59 57 56 47
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).60 60 10 10
LAL.............5 5 1 1
Temp............88 79 74 71
RH..............30 47 62 66
20 FT wind......W 10G14 W 8G14 NW 7G12 NW 6G8
Mix hgt (ft)....4400 400 400 400
Transport wind..W 15 W 15 W 10 W 6
Haines index....3 3 3 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..61 6 3 2
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70.
Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs around 90. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 60s. Highs around 90. West winds around 7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416500.2/EPZ
.DELDT 06/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov