Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
770
FNUS74 KEPZ 212331
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for NORMANDY FIRE...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
531 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MDT on June 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will be LOW. Showers with embedded thunder will
be likely through the remainder of the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
will be possible in and around the heavier thundershowers. Wetting rains
likely. Excellent overnight recoveries of 65 to 75 percent with temperatures
falling to the upper 60s to around 70. Winds will be breezy at 10 to 15 mph
out of the east through the night. Conditions quiet down during the morning
with partly cloudy skies. High temperatures on Saturday will top out around
90 with Min RH values in the 20s. Isolated to scattered showers and storms
will be possible during the afternoon with gusty/erratic outflow winds.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through the evening and
early overnight hours. Wetting rains likely. Gusty and
erratic outflow winds with any shower/storms that develop
in the vicinity of the fire.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent, becoming 40-50 after midnight.
LAL.................4 until 0300, then 3.
Min temperature.....Upper 60s to around 70.
Max humidity........65-75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening and overnight. Winds remain breezy out of the
east to southeast at 8-13 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 22 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........81 81 85 73 73 56
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).80 80 80 40 40 30
LAL.............5 5 5 4 4 4
Temp............81 76 74 72 70 69
RH..............50 57 65 69 70 67
20 ft wind......E 11 E 11 E 10 NE 10 NE 10 NE 10
20 ft wind gust.20 20 18 20 20 18
Mix hgt (ft)....1600 1600 600 600 700 700
Transport wind..E 22 E 22 E 15 E 15 E 13 E 13
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34 34 10 10 6 6
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Becoming partly
to mostly cloudy during the afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers through the day. Scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......35 to 50 percent during the afternoon/evening.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Upper 80s to low 90s.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms through the afternoon
and evening.
Mixing height.......Becoming 8500 ft AGL during the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (113800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........42 42 22 27 37 47
Weather cov.....SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).40 20 10 40 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 4 4 4
Temp............69 76 82 87 90 91
RH..............67 54 44 35 30 26
20 ft wind......NE 8 NE 8 E 8 E 8 E 8 E 9
20 ft wind gust.16 16 16 16 16 15
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 1500 6900 6900 8500 8500
Transport wind..E 13 E 13 E 13 E 13 E 15 E 15
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 19 92 92 114 114
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Scattered
thunderstorms early in the evening. Scattered
showers in the evening. Isolated thunderstorms
late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 8 mph shifting to the north
around 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 9 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (104800 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (5400 knot-ft) late in the
night decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft)
overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........38 24 40 30
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 40 10 10
LAL.............4 4 1 1
Temp............88 78 73 70
RH..............25 35 43 51
20 FT wind......E 8G14 E 8G16 E 8G16 N 6G13
Mix hgt (ft)....8100 8100 400 400
Transport wind..E 15 E 15 E 14 SE 9
Haines index....3 3 3 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..105 105 5 4
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Isolated showers in the
morning, then numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 93.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast 5 to 6 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the east around
10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (99700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........17 9 16
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 60
LAL.............1 1 5
Temp............68 83 92
RH..............65 43 25
20 FT wind......W 5G8 S 5G9 E 5G10
Mix hgt (ft)....1600 9900 11500
Transport wind..W 6 E 10 SE 10
Haines index....2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 98 100
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 60s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around
5 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 70.
Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 6 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. West winds around 7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416500.0/EPZ
.DELDT 06/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov