Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
345
FNUS74 KEPZ 161456
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Hwy Bravo Piles...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
856 AM MDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on September 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorm through the day. Temperatures
this afternoon will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with Min RH values
between 37 to 43 percent. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Winds light
and terrain/drainage driven through the remainder of the morning, becoming
southwest this afternoon at 7-12 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. Vicinity
showers/storms could produce gusty (20-30 mph) and erratic winds. Mixing
heights will increase during the late morning and afternoon hours with
smoke ventilation rates increasing to Good to Very Goodthis afternoon.
Conditions will gradually dry out during the late evening and overnight
timeframe with great overnight recoveries.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy (50-75 percent). Slight chance of
showers through the morning timeframe.
Then chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40-60 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 77-82.
Min humidity........38-43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 3-7 mph shifting to the
southwest around 8-12 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near vicinity showers and
thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......6000 to 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (100800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
Sky (%).........65 70 75 75 70
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 50 50 50
LAL.............6 6 5 5 5
Temp............63 70 75 80 78
RH..............54 46 41 38 43
20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 6 S 8 SW 8 SW 8
20 ft wind gust.9 9 15 15 13
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 6800 6800 6700 6700
Transport wind..S 10 S 14 S 14 SW 16 SW 16
Haines index....2 2 2 3 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..20 99 99 101 101
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-75 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
becoming dry and partly cloudy during the
overnight timeframe.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 53-58.
Max humidity........80-95 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms. Winds becoming
light and terrain driven during the overnight.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........69 69 64 61 61 62
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 20 20 20
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 3
Temp............76 68 64 62 60 58
RH..............48 64 69 73 75 77
20 ft wind......SW 8 SW 8 SW 6 SW 3 SW 3 W 2
20 ft wind gust.13 13 9 6 6 5
Mix hgt (ft)....3400 3400 1100 1100 1100 1100
Transport wind..SW 9 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7 S 8 S 8
Haines index....2 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31 31 7 7 9 9
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms in the morning. Mostly sunny to
partly cloudy during the afternoon with dry conditions.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent, becoming 10 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1200, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 78-83.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 8 to 13 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the morning.
Mixing height.......6700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph increasing to around 24
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (139400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........55 30 13 9
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 10 10
LAL.............4 4 1 1
Temp............57 66 76 80
RH..............90 72 41 30
20 FT wind......SW 4G8 SW 8G15 SW 11G18 SW 13G24
Mix hgt (ft)....2600 2600 5800 6700
Transport wind..S 14 S 14 SW 22 SW 24
Haines index....2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..42 42 117 139
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs around 80. West winds
around 6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West
winds around 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. West
winds around 5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422529.0/EPZ
.DELDT 09/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov