Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
573
FNUS74 KEPZ 172201
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Bue 2 fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
401 PM MDT Mon Jun 17 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on June 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL fire weather conditions expected on Tuesday with
gusty southwest winds and critically dry relative humidities. Winds in the
morning will be generally light and terrain/diurnal driven in direction, quickly
increasing during the late morning and afternoon timeframe to 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to 20 to 30 mph. Min RH values will be 9 to 13 percent during the
afternoon. Deep mixing will promote Very Good smoke ventilation rates. Winds
remain breezy during the overnight hours, becoming light just before sunrise
on Wednesday. The dry line will surge in from the east during the mid day hours
on Wednesday. Winds will become gusty out of the east at 10 to 20 mph with gusts
to 25 to 35 mph. Moisture will increase with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Upper 70s to low 80s.
Min humidity........9 to 13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds of 3-7 mph during the early and mid
morning hours, generally diurnal and terrain driven
in direction. Winds increase during the late morning
and afternoon timeframe out of the southwest at 10-20
mph with gusts to 20-30 mph.
Mixing height.......9000 to 10000 during the afternoon ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....POOR early in the morning
increasing to very good (129500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........4 4 2 6 6 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............57 64 71 77 82 83
RH..............30 29 20 15 12 10
20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 5 SW 7 SW 12 SW 12 SW 15
20 ft wind gust.9 9 18 25 25 29
Mix hgt (ft)....400 400 4500 7500 9300 9300
Transport wind..W 13 W 13 SW 16 SW 16 W 16 W 16
Haines index....4 4 4 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 5 70 119 130 130
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD VYGD VYGD
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Middle to upper 50s.
Max humidity........23-28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 20-25 mph
in the evening and overnight. Becoming light at 3 to 7
mph during early morning hours out of the southeast to
east
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (100100 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (7200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........10 10 11 8 8 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............80 72 67 64 62 60
RH..............11 13 16 17 20 23
20 ft wind......SW 14 SW 14 SW 11 W 9 W 9 SW 5
20 ft wind gust.30 30 24 21 21 12
Mix hgt (ft)....7200 7200 700 700 700 700
Transport wind..SW 16 SW 16 SW 15 SW 15 SW 10 SW 10
Haines index....6 6 6 6 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..100 100 10 10 7 7
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.JUNETEENTH...
Sky/weather.........Sunny to partly cloudy(20-40 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........19 to 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to around 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Dry line will surge in from the east during the
early to mid afternoon timeframe. As it does so
gusty winds and increased moisture will accompany it.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph increasing to southeast
around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (44900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (135700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (148300
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........5 6 21 43
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 40 40
LAL.............1 1 4 4
Temp............59 70 78 83
RH..............26 23 22 24
20 FT wind......E 2G6 SE 4G10 SE 10G24 SE 17G35
Mix hgt (ft)....5600 5600 11000 10200
Transport wind..S 8 S 8 S 12 SE 20
Haines index....5 5 5 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..45 45 136 148
Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD VYGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Not as warm. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 70s. Southeast winds
around 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Showers with thunderstorms likely. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs
in the upper 60s. Southeast winds around 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 6 mph.
$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...ICT4 (t)
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416173.1/EPZ
.DELDT 06/17/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.goetz@usda.gov