Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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198 FXUS64 KEWX 191914 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 214 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper level ridge continues to reside over the southern plains this afternoon. The low level pressure field is somewhat ill defined. The flow, while generally from the southern half of the compass, is best defined as light and variable over South-Central Texas. A warm, moist airmass remains in place. Temperatures and dewpoints are within a couple of degrees of where they were 24 hours ago. The upper ridge will shift ever so slowly toward the east during the short term period. Models show the low level flow becoming better established from the southeast tonight, and that will continue through Friday night. Subsident flow from the upper ridge will keep the weather dry through the period. The above normal temperatures will also continue. Lows both tonight and tomorrow night will be mostly in the 70s. Some record warm lows will be possible both nights. High temperatures Friday will be in the 90s. Record highs are 100 and higher. While we do not have any records in the forecast, some places could be within a couple of degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Upper-level ridging will be at it`s strongest and centered over South Central Texas on Saturday. It should begin to flatten and weaken somewhat by Sunday afternoon, opening the door for a cold front to surge southward into the northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau late Sunday. Our next shot at rain probably won`t arrive until at least Tuesday as another upper-level trough approaches from the west. What happens beyond Wednesday is very much in question. When guidance can get a better grasp on what sort of tropical activity develops in the western Caribbean and what to do with the 500mb High as it weakens and slides eastward, it will determine how the large scale pattern evolves next week. In any matter, it looks like we should see an end to the above normal temperatures and replace it with near normal highs by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The MVFR cloud deck over DRT is dissipating from the west and they should be VFR within the next hour. Then all terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the period. With no real change to the weather pattern, we expect a repeat of low clouds overnight until late morning Friday. A trough will slide east through Oklahoma and southern Kansas on Monday afternoon, in effect preventing the front from progressing any further south on Monday. Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible in western and northern zones Sunday afternoon and early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 99 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 98 80 97 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 97 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 98 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 97 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 99 78 97 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...MMM Aviation...05