Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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772 FXUS64 KEWX 180650 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Low clouds are developing across the southern Edwards Plateau and parts of the Rio Grande Plains. Most of the hires models suggest for this pattern to continue overnight through the middle of the morning. Clouds lift and scatter out for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies this afternoon. High temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Hill Country and mid to upper 90s elsewhere. No rain expected throughout the day as upper ridging dominates the local area. The dry weather conditions continue this evening and into the overnight period. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the lower 70s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 70s across the rest of the local area. Low clouds return overnight across most locations for mostly cloudy skies and stay throughout the morning hours. By noon on Thursday, partly cloudy skies are forecast to dominate the local area with highs in the lower 90s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau while the rest of the local area gets into the mid to upper 90s. Rain is not expected across South Central Texas for this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper level ridge over most of Texas late this week gradually shifts to the south this weekend with the axis from the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to over far southern Texas into Mexico early next week. A series of upper level troughs move out over the Plains and Central states this weekend into early next week with their dynamics passing north of our area. There remains some uncertainty with respect to the lower levels. Most recent models/ensembles have kept any frontal boundaries north of our area while an occasional operational run have it briefly move into our area. Have favored the consensus and keep it north of our area. As a result, with no forcing mechanisms, rain is not forecast. The exception being Sunday afternoon when a surface boundary may approach our area bringing a few showers to parts of the Edwards Plateau. Although no fronts are expected, the lower level thermal ridge slowly weakens this weekend into early next week leading to a slight "cool" down. However, temperatures remain above normal through the forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 VFR conditions are forecast for the next several hours across the I-35 terminals before MVFR and IFR cigs build and affect them. Those low cigs are forecast from 10z to 14z Wed. By 15z, cigs return to VFR for the I-35 sites and remain through the night. For KDRT, MVFR cigs are forecast for a few hours around 12z and back to VFR by 15z. Southeast to south winds of 8 knots or less are expected overnight into Wednesday morning. The southerly wind flow continues on Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 7 to 9 knots and gusting up to 18 knots at KDRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 97 78 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...17 Long-Term...04 Aviation...17