Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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754 FXUS64 KEWX 251102 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 602 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Low clouds are in the process of developing across the central areas of the CWA overnight. Southeasterly flow also prevails with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s at the present time. Low temperatures later by morning will be mostly in the middle to upper 70s for most locations. The main concern of the short-term portion of the forecast will be the continued early season heat with highs today in the middle 90s to 107 degrees. The main issue will be the elevated dewpoints remaining in the peak heating periods leading to afternoon heat index values in excess of 108 degrees for many locations. Have issued a Heat Advisory today to much of the CWA outside of the Hill Country. With the dryline remaining more to our west today, the southwestern CWA is in the advisory today. The ARW shows some isolated convection today but it is the only CAM that shows any activity in our area. Will keep the forecast dry with the consensus of the model guidance. Lows tonight will be back in the 70s to near 80 degrees. For tomorrow, another hot day is expected with highs in the upper 90s to 108 degree range. The dryline should push more to the east tomorrow which will likely keep heat index values in the Rio Grande Plains and southwestern CWA from reaching advisory criteria. However, another Heat Advisory will likely be needed for the I35 corridor and Coastal Plains tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 The base of a Central/Northern Plains upper trough lifts NE to the Ark-la-tex by 00Z Monday, leading to the farthest eastward intrusion of the dry-line over South Central TX in this heatwave pattern. This leaves Gulf moisture depleted over most of the CWA, and the return flow and morning low clouds may not get to progress as far inland as they have prior mornings. This means another rapid late morning burn off of the low clouds and another day of record heat and high heat index values for Monday. Late in the day some changes aloft over Mexico could increase mid level moisture, while at the surface a weak cold front arrives into Central TX. The past few runs of the deterministic GFS show two areas of destabilization, one possibly storm initiation on the higher terrain slopes of Mexico and another from the frontal convergence over the I-35 corridor. It`s possible that only a few storms develop out of this region as the air aloft should still be mostly stable. Then once a storm develops, there should be a favorable condition for strong downdrafts in the hot and dry mixing layer. This could further reduce the amount of convection that could occur Monday evening. The GFS precipitation placement looks good, but we`ll stick to the more conservative PoP numbers closer to the NBM. Tuesday, a shortwave disturbance moves through TX and generates scattered convection as a more unstable NW flow aloft pattern develops over Central TX. The added clouds, and storm downdrafts should further establish the modified low level frontal air spilling south and get us back to more typical late May MaxT values. Yet another wave of convection is depicted for Wednesday night into Thursday. As is typical with NW flow patterns, the Central TX counties will again get the best instability and rain potential with these rounds of convection. Additional late spring rounds of convection will remain possible in this rather vague upper pattern through the 7-day forecast, but shortwave identification and storm timing will become less predictable. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 MVFR stratus is in place at the I35 sites and inching closer to DRT at the present time. VFR will return by 17-18z for all sites. Southerly winds will pick up in speed during the afternoon periods. Another round of MVFR ceilings can be expected tonight across the I35 sites once again. && .CLIMATE... (RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 SAT SUN MON 05/25 05/26 05/27 -------------------------------------- AUS 100/2011 97/2018 100/2011 ATT 100/2011 99/2018 100/2011 SAT 103/1989 100/1989 100/2011 DRT 104/2011 106/2018 106/2018 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 100 75 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 98 72 / 0 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 107 82 109 74 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 95 74 98 73 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 101 75 104 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 77 96 77 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio- Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Medina- Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Wilson-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...18 Aviation...29