Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
642 FXUS64 KEWX 251919 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 219 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies have prevailed into this afternoon with spotty isolated tropical showers moving from the Victoria Crossroads northward into our coastal plain counties. Isolated activity remains possible into early this evening. The activity may also try get a little more inland push toward the evening pending the strength and location of the sea breeze. Any activity quickly dissipates towards and after nightfall. Most locations will remain rain free. Heat remains the main impact to South-Central Texas in the short term as the heat indices are expected to peak in the 105 to 110 degree range each afternoon for locations mainly near and east of the I-35 corridor. Latest changes with the Heat Advisory are including the addition of Frio County and extension of the advisory to cover through Wednesday evening. Please continue to practice and promote heat safety. Tonight trends very warm and muggy where the overnight lows are to only dip into the mid to upper 70s and near 80 degrees at Del Rio. Low stratus will develop late overnight into the morning but quickly erodes to mostly sunny to partly sunny skies by the afternoon. Most locations stay rain free through Wednesday but an isolated spotty shower or two could again get into Lavaca or Dewitt counties. The flow aloft does also become more northerly as the ridge center slips slightly more to the west. Models are showing a possible convective complex moving southward out of Arkansas into Wednesday evening/night within this flow. The vast majority of the guidance do keep the region dry but we`ll need to still keep eye out for any possible outflow associated with this complex as a few outlier HREF members do suggest some decaying activity could approach our region sometime Wednesday evening/night. I`ll keep the forecast PoPs for now at 5 percent or less for this time period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 The subtropical ridge will be the dominant weather feature for the long term period. It will suppress most convection through the period and the heat will be the main concern. Under this stagnant pattern temperatures will be mainly steady. Highs will be mainly in the 90s with some triple digits along the Rio Grande. Lows will be mostly in the 70s with 80-81 along the Rio Grande. Afternoon dewpoints will determine if we need any heat products. Right now every day looks close, but not obvious. We will likely be looking at day by day decisions. Generally, the mostly likely area that will need heat products will be the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. While we will mainly be rain free through the period, there will be couple of chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms when the upper ridge weakens slightly. Friday and Sunday we`ll see slight rain chance. Friday the area will be the Coastal Plains into the San Antonio area. Sunday it will be the Coastal Plains out to the southern Rio Grande region. Friday the probability looks a little better, but we still expect most places to stay rain free. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 VFR flight conditions prevail at the area TAF sites throughout the afternoon into this evening with few to sct fair weather cumulus. Any spotty shower activity through early evening should stay to the east of the sites within the coastal plain counties. Stratus with MVFR ceilings will redevelop at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT and KSSF) overnight into Wednesday morning. KDRT remains VFR but some scattered low clouds could reach the site around/after sunrise. All sites should see returning VFR flight conditions into and through Tuesday afternoon. Light to moderate winds prevail from out of the east-southeast to south-southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 78 98 78 99 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 97 76 98 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 96 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 102 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 96 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 95 77 94 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes- Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady