281
FXUS64 KEWX 292344 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A few showers persist over the coastal plains into the Highway 77
corridor early this afternoon. Radar trends show this activity
slowly weakening and with most of the hi-res models suggesting
additional convection is unlikely, we will keep the forecast dry for
the afternoon and evening. Expect another warm night, with lows in
the 70s to near 80 degrees along with gusty winds this evening. Low
clouds will develop once again late tonight and persist through most
of Sunday morning. A subtle increase in moisture and the low-level
jet should be enough to generate some isolated showers Sunday
morning over the coastal plains. With daytime heating, some isolated
showers and storms may develop farther north to an Eagle Pass to San
Antonio to Schulenburg line. We will keep a 20% chance for rain in
the forecast for these areas. At least a few of the hi-res models
show some convection may develop even farther north into portions of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. With not much in the way of
focused lift, we will keep the forecast dry for the coastal plains
and I-35 corridor north of San Antonio and continue to monitor
subsequent model data. It will be hot again on Sunday and prefer to
stick closer to a persistence forecast vs. the NBM which looks too
low. With this in mind, we will issue another Heat Advisory on
Sunday from 1 PM until 7 PM for the coastal plains and most areas
along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Upper level ridging will be centered over the South Central US
Monday, shifting to the east slowly through late week. High
temperatures will remain in the 90s and triple digits this upcoming
week with lows in the 70s to low 80s. Humidity will continue to be
highest in areas along and east of I-35 where additional Heat
Advisories are likely for most days due to high heat indices. Dry
weather will be the normal with only some low end shower and isolated
thunderstorm chances over the coastal plains due to the seabreeze.
The best chances for this will be on Wednesday. A trough may move
into the southern Plains Friday night into Saturday with a front
forecast to approach the area next weekend. There remains a lot of
uncertainty in the details of this system, so have continued with a
mainly dry forecast on Saturday per the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through at
least midnight tonight. Around 07Z or 08Z, low clouds are forecast
to develop across the Coastal Plains and spread to the north and
northwest across the I-35 corridor and along the Rio Grande
resulting in MVFR cigs. Low clouds lift late Sunday morning giving
way to VFR conditions. Southeast winds of 10 to 18 knots with gusts
up to 28 knots especially along the Rio Grande are forecast through
the evening. After midnight tonight, the wind flow relaxes a bit
with speeds around 5 to 10 knots overnight through late Sunday
morning. The wind speeds do pick up a bit on Sunday afternoon and
could range from 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  99  78 101 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  98  75 100 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     78  98  75 100 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  97  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 102  80 102 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  98  77  99 /   0  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             78  99  75  99 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  74  99 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  97  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       79  97  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79  99  77 100 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17