339
FXUS64 KEWX 221801
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
101 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

A cold front will sag into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande this
evening, then Central Texas, the Hill Country, and farther south
along the Rio Grande overnight. Forcing by the front will generate
low chances of showers and thunderstorms over these areas. Forecast
soundings show a potential for strong wind gusts and hail northwest
of a Del Rio to Rocksprings line. Locally heavy downpours are also
possible. The front drifts a little farther to the south on Monday
and stalls near the I-35 and US 90 corridors to portions of the Rio
Grande Monday night. Any dynamics aloft pass well to the north of
our area, moisture convergence decreases, and a minimum of forcing
(mainly heating) lead to low chances of showers and thunderstorms
along and behind the front on Monday. Loss of heating keeps rain
chances out of the forecast for Monday night. Temperatures remain
above average for the most part, except near average across northern
parts of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Valley.
Otherwise, a pattern of night into morning low clouds with afternoon
sunshine continues.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The stationary/diffused front over the service area will keep rain
chances low during the day on Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures
are expected to rise into the upper 80s across the Hill
Country/Edwards Plateau with mid-90s across the Coastal Plains. Late
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, a renewed surge of the cold
front will bring both cooler temperatures and increased chances for
showers and isolated thunder. This could occur in two rounds, late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. the first round
could be more isolated in nature as the diffused initial front
begins to shift southwards. With disorganized forcing, storm motions
don`t look as impressive and could allow for some of our anticipated
isolated higher rainfall totals. The second round looks to be
focused along the southward surging re-enforcing cold airmass. While
this will be a little more widespread, the forward speed could help
to limit additional rainfall amounts. Overall, widespread rainfall
should generally range around one half inch, however there are some
signals for higher amounts of a couple of inches of storm total.

Thursday through Saturday`s weather pattern will be dominated by the
potential development of a tropical system affecting the eastern
Gulf of Mexico/inland. The more local effects will be a prolonged
period of northern winds which should help to keep the forecast dry
and near to slightly above climatological normal temperatures for
this time of year (mid-80s to lower 90s).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

CIGs will lift to VFR across all areas by 19Z, then lower back to
MVFR overnight into Monday morning. As a front moves into our area,
SHRA/TSRA will develop across portions of the Hill Country, Edwards
Plateau, and Rio Grande this evening through Monday. Have maintained
VCSH at KDRT, however later updates could go with prevailing or TSRA
based on model/radar trends. Southeasterly winds prevail at 7 to 15
KTs, become light this evening, then gradually turn to northerly on
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  95  73  94 /   0  10  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  95  72  94 /   0  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  96  73  95 /   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            72  89  70  90 /  20  20  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  92  75  95 /  20  20  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  92  71  91 /  20  10  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             73  94  73  94 /   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  94  71  94 /   0  10  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  93  72  92 /   0  10  10  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  75  94 /   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           75  95  75  95 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...36
Aviation...04