Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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480 FXUS64 KEWX 160642 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 142 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As ridging aloft gradually builds over the area, most of the region will remain dry and warm today and Tuesday. The exception is across far southwest areas, in Maverick and Dimmit counties, where isolated showers will be possible today. This is in an area of deeper moisture, extending into Mexico and south Texas, and where weak mid and upper level forcing is still present. Another exception is near a weak surface boundary that will be draped today and washing out Tuesday through portions of the northern Hill Country, into the I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio, and east along the I-10 corridor. A few CAMs continue to indicated very isolated showers in this area late this afternoon and evening and again late Tuesday afternoon along this weak boundary. The aforementioned ridging aloft will work against any more coverage than that. Given the low confidence and coverage we will only indicate a silent 10 pop. Continued warm afternoon temperatures with highs today and Tuesday in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Upper level ridging over a lower level southerly flow continue mid to late week. Rain is not forecast due to very low chances. However, there is a potential for a few showers each day should lower level moisture be deeper. This is due to the low level jet impinging on the Edwards Plateau during the early mornings and seabreeze moving over the Coastal Plains during the late afternoons. The ridging flattens allowing an upper level trough to move over the Plains states next weekend. Forcing from the approaching trough and possible surface boundary could lead to slight chances of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. However, there remains some uncertainty on the extent of the trough and boundary over our area making even the slight chances seem generous. Well above average, summer-like temperatures continue, though trend a little closer to average next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period for most areas across south- central Texas. Isolated SHRAs will be possible near and south of a 5T9-COT line overnight and Monday. In addition, there is a 10-20% chance of isolated SHRAs from 22Z-03Z near a weak surface boundary through the Hill Country into the inland Coastal Plain, roughly near a T82-BAZ-T20 line. Confidence and coverage is too low to include in the SAT TAF at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 72 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 75 96 79 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 72 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 72 97 72 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 72 96 73 / 10 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 75 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 75 98 77 / 0 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...76 Long-Term...04 Aviation...76