Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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302 FXUS64 KEWX 142255 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 555 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Looking at the latest GOES 16 regional water vapor imagery, we note the flattened Subtropical Ridge over the Baja of California extending eastward into South Central Texas. This should result in synoptic scale sinking motion through the short term period with hot and dry weather expected through at least Saturday. An expansive Cu field is noted on visible satellite imagery over central and south Texas this afternoon and that is expected to happen once again on Saturday despite high pressure aloft, as easterly to southeasterly surface flow off the Gulf of Mexico keeps low level moisture in play to form those clouds. Temperatures should mainly be kept in check, with highs in the 90s for most and heat indices in the 100-105 range. The Rio Grande Plains will continue to top out in the 100-103 range through Saturday. A much more interesting forecast is in play for the long term. See below. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The general morphology for the extended period is familiar to climatological patterns seen for "slugs of moisture" coming up from the Gulf into Texas/Mexico. There are prospects for tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche, but we are still at an early stage for if/where/when (refer to NHC Outlook for more information). The GFS and lesser extent ECMWF seem to have a good handle on the familiar pattern, with increasing precipitable water and decreasing pressure through the weekend. The net result of that will be slowly increasing rain chances Sunday through Tuesday, followed by scattered storms areawide next Wednesday through Friday. There are still a wide range of possibilities depending on tropical cyclone formation, but at this time, the threat of heavy rain for our area seems limited, and and overall rain chances top out around 50 percent next Wednesday and Thursday, so not a washout for outdoor activities. Temperatures and heat will be above seasonal normals through Monday, then near normal for Tuesday/Wednesday, and then below normal with the cloudcover and scattered storms next Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions are currently prevailing at all sites this afternoon and should continue to do so for most of the period. Can`t completely rule out some brief MVFR conditions at the San Antonio sites around day break tomorrow. Otherwise, winds will be mostly out of the SE with speeds generally less than 10 knots for the I35 sites and a bit higher for DRT. No major impacts are expected during this TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 103 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 98 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Zeitler Aviation...29