582
FXUS64 KEWX 210514 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1214 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

A 591 dm ridge remains centered over northeastern Mexico and south
Texas early this afternoon. Despite its presence, we`ve managed to
see a few isolated showers pop up once again under broad east-
southeasterly surface flow. These showers are primarily daytime
heating driven and won`t last much beyond the 6 pm hour as loss of
solar heating commences. Highs will once again climb into the mid to
upper 90s with heat indices possibly reaching 103-107 in some spots
today. More of the same can be expected on Saturday with highs in the
mid to upper 90s. Showers look less likely Saturday as the high
moves pretty much right over the top of us. Not much else meaningful
to mention in the short term. Muggy and hot conditions are expected
to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Models remain in good to excellent agreement with a longwave trough
in the western U.S. suppressing the upper level ridge over Texas
this coming week. Besides general 500 mb height falls, the lower
levels will change as shortwave troughs passing through the central
and northern U.S. will result in a cold front progressing south, and
progressively weakening, with time. The front will be like shallow
boundary and likely stall just north of our area, but act as a focus
for storms there, with outflow boundaries to increasing low-level
convergence and lift over our area, while a shortwave trough moves
through at mid-week to provide mid and upper level lift.

The sensible weather will be an increase in POPs first in the far
northwest on Sunday evening, then spreading east into the Edwards
Plateau and western Hill Country on Monday, then finally south and
east across the entire area Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening. But don`t get your hopes up too high for rain, as chances
max out around 20-30 percent and rainfall will be spotty and
generally light, with most locations receiving 1/10 inch or less, and
only a lucky few receiving 1/4 inch.

Temperatures will be near normal (upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
and mid 60s to lower 70s for lows) throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

There are a few low clouds around KSAT and KSSF with way more mid
level clouds overhead and to the west of terminals as of 05Z. Still
expecting low clouds to develop overnight (07z-08z) across the San
Antonio sites and around 09z at KDRT and 12z over KAUS. MVFR cigs
stay to about 15z-16z time frame and then to VFR conditions through
the evening. Southeast winds 10 knots or less are forecast overnight
through mid Saturday morning then picking up from 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 21 knots especially across KDRT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              99  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  74  96  71 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  75  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  74  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           95  79  96  78 /  10  10   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  74  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  76  94  74 /  20  20  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  74  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  74  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  77  95  75 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  78  96  75 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...17