507
FXUS64 KEWX 150631
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
131 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly clear skies are observed over South Central Texas early this
morning. Some low cloud development is expected closer to sunrise
near or just west of the San Antonio metro into portions of the
western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains. Clouds will quickly scatter through the morning with
additional cumulus expected to develop through the afternoon. Today
will be seasonably hot with highs around 100-103 degrees in the west
over the Rio Grande Plains and in the mid to upper 90s elsewhere.
High pressure aloft weakens today as a mid-level shortwave moves
across the central and southern Plains leaving weak flow aloft
through Sunday. Low level moisture increases Sunday bringing another
round of low cloud development in the morning and scattered cumulus
in the afternoon. There is a low chance an isolated shower or
thunderstorm moves into the far eastern Coastal Plains in the
afternoon, with better precipitation chances seen the following
days. Sunday temperatures will be similar to those seen this
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The Subtropical Ridge remains centered over the Southeastern States
early next week allowing a plume of tropical moisture to spread into
Texas. We expect showers and thunderstorms as far west as the I-35
corridor on Monday and Tuesday. The Ridge builds back over Texas mid
to late week guiding the plume toward the west with showers and
thunderstorms spreading to the Rio Grande on Wednesday and Thursday.
Models continue to show potential for development of a tropical
system with NHC indicating a 50% chance in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Models maintain consensus on a westward movement into and
across Mexico. There is a potential for enhanced rainfall with PWs
greater than 2 inches, possibly as high as 2.5 inches. However, there
is uncertainty on where. Gusty winds are possible with the stronger
storms. As the clouds and rain spread farther to the west, the above
normal high temperatures gradually fall to near to below normal
during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Besides patchy MVFR ceilings that are possible at SAT/SSF around 12-
15Z, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light wind
overnight becomes southeasterly at I-35 sites generally less than 13
knots. A bit higher wind speeds are expected in the west along the
Rio Grande including at DRT. Better chances for more widespread MVFR
ceilings are seen early Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  96  75 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  75  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  80 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  72  94  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  94  75 /   0   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  76  98  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77  99  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...04
Aviation...27