404
FXUS64 KEWX 271112 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
612 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A weakness in the 500mb ridge may afford the Hill Country, portions
of the I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains a quick round of showers or
storms Thursday afternoon/evening. A complex of storms over the
Panhandle will slide southward under weak northerly flow around the
eastern periphery of the 500mb High situated over SW Texas today.
These storms may send an outflow boundary into our CWA, and during
peak heating, we may see a few storms fire up along any boundary
that moves into our neck of the woods. Most will remain dry, but a
lucky few may get a quick round of relief.

A Heat Advisory will be in effect once again through 7pm this
evening for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points eastward. Temperatures
will top out in the upper 90s to near 100 today, making it the
hottest day of this latest stretch of heat. Heat indices are expected
to climb into the 105-112 range, so make sure you find a way to stay
cool and hydrated if you must be outdoors this afternoon. On Friday,
expect more of the same in the heat department, as temperatures soar
into the upper 90s to near 100. Heat indices will again climb into
the 105-112 range for the I-35/I-37 Corridor and points east and
another Heat Advisory may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

The upper level ridge will remain centered just north of the area
over the weekend maintaining an influence over the area. A subtle
increase in moisture across the southern areas, south of U.S. 90, is
indicated Sunday and could generate very isolated showers. However,
most of the deeper moisture will be well south of the region with
the tropical wave. The ridge is forecast to center northeast of the
area during the early to middle part of next week. Continued warm
and dry for most of the region, with the exception of a 10-20%
chance of stray afternoon showers in the Coastal Plains. Will
continue to monitor for heat advisories during this time.

Only other thing of note, we are entering the Saharan dust season.
The first round of light dust could arrive as early as Saturday, with
more moderate and noticeable amounts arriving Sunday and Monday per
dust aerosol optical thickness and vertical concentration forecasts
from GMAO. Anticipate slightly more colorful sunrises and sunsets
Sunday and Monday and hazy/milky appearance to the sky during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Few changes from the previous forecast with the main change being to
introduce a TEMPO group at SAT and SSF and remove MVFR ceilings from
prevailing conditions. Confidence has decreased in ceiling thickness
as high clouds have started to move in overhead. Thus, have opted to
go with a TEMPO group instead for MVFR CIGs. Otherwise, things remain
largely the same with VFR at all sites and south to southeasterly
winds through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             101  78  99  80 /  20  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  77  98  79 /  20  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  77  98  79 /  10  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            99  77  98  79 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  81 103  82 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  77  98  78 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             99  77  99  79 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  76  97  77 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   96  77  94  79 /  20  10  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  78  98  80 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          100  78  99  80 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...76
Aviation...MMM