Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
970 FGUS74 KEWX 151435 ESFEWX TXC127-163-271-325-463-160835- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 935 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Nueces River Basin in South Central Texas... The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Nueces River Basin in South Central Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Nueces River at Laguna has a flood stage of 10 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Laguna forecast point will rise above 2.0 feetduring the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 08/14/2024 - 11/12/2024 Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Nueces River Laguna 10.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 2.0 2.6 2.9 5.0 11.9 Uvalde 11.0 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.9 4.3 8.1 13.8 Asherton 20.0 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.8 5.3 8.8 24.1 28.1 West Nueces Bracketville 15.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.8 3.3 4.8 5.6 16.5 Frio River Concan 11.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.7 5.3 9.5 Below Dry Frio 12.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.4 4.8 8.2 Derby 6.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.9 8.8 Sabinal River Sabinal 12.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.9 3.1 4.0 6.0 Seco Creek Rowe Ranch 15.0 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.6 Hondo Creek at Hwy 173 12.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 5.1 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=ewx Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$