304
FXUS62 KFFC 091828
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

No major weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the long
term period.

Pretty quiet, but very hot this afternoon. Some temps may top out
just shy of 100F in our SE counties. Morning sounding also showed
very warm mid level temps with nearly +12C at 700mb, which should be
more than enough inhibit any convection this afternoon and early
evening until we can get some mid level upward motion and/or CAA
aloft.

Near-term CAM guidance has started backing off on chances for MCS
development overnight, perhaps due to capping inversion which likely
extends west into central AL where few if any cumulus have developed
based on VIS imagery. Boundary over northern MS and AL remains well-
defined and plenty of moisture and instability to work with as
SBCAPE values 3000-5000 J/kg in place over central MS and western AL
at this time. Even if storms fire, they may remain west of the area
as the MCS propagates ESE toward the higher low-level theta-e
values. Have backed off a little on PoPs overnight but may need to
continue trending them lower unless something more definitive
develops upstream.

Monday, larger-scale boundary should slide SE during the day and
take sfc forcing and moisture out of the CWA by 00Z, however am
concerned this front may push slower than forecast. Will likely
tweak PoPs for tonight and Monday one more time before finalizing
the forecast.

Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the
next 7 days.

SNELSON

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some notable changes to the long term forecast are in store with
this forecast update as models continue to struggle to come into
agreement over the midweek system affecting the northern Gulf. This
forecast update has daily rain and thunderstorm chances shifting
further south than previous forecasts, relegating the best chances
for precipitation in the CWA across south central Georgia. With the
broad trough making its exit off the east coast, another shortwave
embedded within the mid-level flow will swing through Wednesday and
Thursday as weak surface cyclogenesis hugs the Gulf Coast. PoPs have
also dropped off with this southward shift, where slight chance to
low end chances for precipitation are now in play through the middle
of the work week. Additionally, PWATs have have moderated back to
1.5-2.0+" as the surface low likely stays further south of our area.
As the surface low begins to push northeast by the end of the week
as a ridge builds in from the west, the chance for rain and
thunderstorms will expand northward through the weekend. At this
time, no significant severe weather impacts with storms are
anticipated, though a few strong storms may be possible producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and periods of heavy rainfall.


KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions expected thru ~05Z after which time scattered
SHRA/TSRA with bkn025 cigs and 3-5SM vsby may be moving thru
north Georgia airports including KATL and KAHN. Still appears
chance for these storms to make it to middle Georgia airports is
too low to mention overnight. Sfc winds WNW 10-12kts with some
gusts to 22kts 17-23Z this afternoon will decrease to 4-7kts after
02Z then become NW 7-10kts after 15Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low-Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA likelihood and timing.
High confidence on all other elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  83  61  85 /  30  20  10   0
Atlanta         69  85  63  86 /  60  20  10   0
Blairsville     60  77  53  79 /  50  20  10   0
Cartersville    65  83  58  84 /  60  20  10   0
Columbus        73  90  67  90 /  10  30  10   0
Gainesville     67  82  60  84 /  60  20  10   0
Macon           72  89  66  90 /  10  30  20  10
Rome            66  85  59  85 /  50  10  10   0
Peachtree City  67  85  61  86 /  60  20  10   0
Vidalia         74  93  71  91 /  10  40  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...SNELSON