005
FXUS62 KFFC 191805
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
205 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Highlights:

-Warm and breezy conditions expected today.

-Isolated showers will be possible across far south-central GA this
afternoon and again Thursday afternoon.

Dense high clouds blanket the forecast area early this morning.
Current temperature readings are in the 70s and easterly winds
remain breezy. A 500mb ridge remains in place and elongated up
the East Coast keeping any unsettled weather (associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One) well to our south. Surface high
pressure still remains just off the Mid-Atlantic Coast extending
southward. We will still feel the effects of the midlevel ridging
and high pressure today -- aka warm temperatures and mostly dry
weather. Though strong easterly flow and a weak disturbance may
aid in the development of isolated showers across the extreme
southeast portion of the CWA this afternoon and on Thursday
afternoon. Similar to yesterday, easterly winds will pick up late
morning as mixing occurs resulting in gusts 20 to 25 MPH through
the afternoon.

Temperatures today are forecast to be slightly `cooler` than
previous days with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (80s
in the mountains). Additionally, lower dewpoints and afternoon RH
values will keep heat indices near the actual temperature. On
Thursday, forecast highs will be a degree or two warmer with
readings in the low 90s (80s in the mountains). Forecast lows will
dip into the 60s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Key Messages:

 - Temperatures will rise over the weekend and may approach Heat
Advisory levels in parts of Georgia between Sunday and Tuesday.

 - Scattered thunderstorms may return in earnest to the whole region
early next week.

Friday through Early Next Week:

Overall forecast trends for this period have remained largely
unchanged over the last 24 hours. Guidance from the EPS and GEFS
continues to suggest that the upper level ridge over the Mid-
Atlantic will gradually retrograde towards Texas. This shift will
allow our temperatures to trend upwards over the weekend, despite
the fairly unusual mix of falling 500 mb heights and rising 850 mb
temperatures. Widespread high temperatures at or above 95 degrees
are probable (40-80% chance, highest in central GA) between Saturday
and Tuesday. Per the latest guidance from the NBM, triple digit
temperatures remain possible. Atlanta`s odds of reaching 100 degrees
peak at 20% on Monday, while the NBM gives Macon a 41% chance of a
100 degree high Monday afternoon. These values represent a modest (5-
10%) increase in confidence over the last 24 hours. While these
numbers have increased, it is worth noting that the overall spread
in the guidance remains fairly high, roughly 6-7 degrees between the
25th and 75th percentiles. This indicates overall uncertainty in the
forecast, likely due to some of the members producing scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity early next week. Our forecast
remains close to the NBM mean, and with surface dewpoints in the mid
to upper 60s it looks like heat index values could approach Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees) sometime between Sunday and Tuesday.
Current forecast heat indices range from 97 to 106 degrees, with the
highest values in central Georgia.

Rising precipitation chances will be the other element of the
forecast to monitor early next week. The majority (>70%) of the GEFS
and EPS members allow PW values to surge to 1.5 inches or higher by
Sunday. Values may stay at this level or higher, per both ensemble
means, through the end of next week. This shift in available
moisture is driven by the approach of an eastelry wave. The National
Hurricane Center has maintained a 20% chance for this wave to
develop into something tropical in nature with the latest outlook.
While this warrants monitoring, there aren`t and indications that
this system will bring significant impacts to Georgia beyond the
rising rain chances at this time. Between Sunday and Tuesday the
easterly wave may interact with a trough over the Northeast to
produce a peak in rain chances in Georgia. Thunderstorms will be
possible, but risk of severe weather remains minimal.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR expected through TAF period at all sites. Some SCT cu have
begun to lift this afternoon to 4-5 kft but will continue to
impact airfields. Otherwise, SCT to BKN high cirrus will remain
through evening. Winds have picked up from east, 8-15 kts with
gusts up to 25 kts. This will continue until sunset. Mostly high
clouds tonight and winds will be much lighter, 4-8 kts, and pick
back up tomorrow from 8-13 kts, still from the east.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  66  92 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         70  91  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Blairsville     62  85  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Cartersville    68  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        70  93  69  95 /   0   0   0  20
Gainesville     68  88  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           67  92  67  93 /   0   0   0  20
Rome            69  93  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  67  91  67  93 /   0   0   0  10
Vidalia         70  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Lusk