891
FXUS62 KFFC 150541
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024


...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

At a glance:

    - Hottest day of the year (so far) to come Saturday

    - Mostly dry

The key player in the next several days` sensible weather will be an
amplifying mid-level ridge that gradually makes its way eastward,
taking up residence across the Southeast/ECONUS. Heating and drying
of our presiding airmass under uninterrupted subsidence will be
further reinforced at the surface, where the western fringes of a
retreating surface high will blanket the area. The result of the
aforementioned features: impressive (comparatively dry) heat through
the weekend. Widespread highs in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from the
terrain of northeast Georgia, which are likely to top out in the
80s) are forecast for this afternoon. Saturday looks to be the
hottest day of the year thus far, with highs forecast to top out in
the mid-to-upper 90s (again, aside from northeast Georgia, which
will remain in the mid-to-upper 80s to near 90). The saving grace of
this setup will be low afternoon relative humidities (in the 30-40%)
thanks to dry northwesterly flow aloft, which will spare north and
central Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat
Advisory Issuance. As it stands, heat index values on Saturday look
to top out in the 98-103F degree range, enough to cause heat-related
illnesses in sensitive/vulnerable populations, like children, the
elderly, and those without access to air conditioning. In addition
to the heat, a Code Orange air quality alert will be in effect
through tomorrow for the Atlanta Metro, due primarily to increased
ozone. The moral of the story: despite lower moisture precluding
more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself if planning on
spending large parts of your weekend outdoors.

Saturday, due to weakness in flow near the surface, very low-end (10-
15%) precipitation chances have been introduced for areas south of I-
20 during the afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out, but ridging aloft -- and associated subsidence -- will inhibit
more widespread convective initiation.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Starting Sunday, surface high pressure slides off the east coast,
bringing a more southerly fetch and moisture slowly returning to
the area on Sunday. Current forecast temps are well into the 90s.
With the slight increase in humidity, heat indices will be near
100 across north and central Georgia. Forecast morning lows on Sunday
start in the 70s in many locations, which should approach or
break record maximum low temperatures in some areas if it comes to
pass. Continue to use caution if doing strenuous activities
outdoors and stay hydrated!

With moisture slowly returning to the area, some afternoon
thunderstorm chances will begin to pick up on Sunday despite dome of
high pressure starting to build overhead. This ridge looks to
potentially be in place through much of the rest of the long term.
Still, these thunderstorms should remain pretty isolated thanks to
aforementioned dome. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time,
though will never rule out a damaging wind gust from a strong
thunderstorm that collapses at the wrong time. Isolated
thunderstorm chances will be in place for various parts of the CWA
through the end of the long term on Thursday. Beyond this, models
show increasing chances of better moisture returning to the area.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will continue for the majority of the region through
06Z Sunday. The exceptions may occur between 20Z today and 02Z
Sunday when isolated thunderstorms could reduce ceilings or
visibilities. Winds will be light (generally less than 6 kt)
across central and northern Georgia today. A weak trend towards
northeast winds may occur for the Atlanta metro TAF sites after
16Z, though any storms may result in a shift to variable winds
this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
High confidence in the visibility and ceiling forecasts.
High confidence in wind speeds, but low confidence in direction.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation outlook between 20Z and
02Z.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  93  71  91 /  20  20  10  10
Atlanta         75  95  74  93 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     67  86  67  85 /  10  20  10  20
Cartersville    72  95  73  94 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        75  98  75  95 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     72  91  72  89 /  10  20  10  10
Macon           74  97  72  94 /  20  20  10  10
Rome            72  96  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
Peachtree City  73  95  72  93 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         74  95  73  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Albright