180
FXUS62 KFFC 221854
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
254 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Relatively uneventful but hot conditions will prevail through the
bulk of the short term forecast period. The former Invest 92L is now
spiraling inland near Savannah but has brought very little in the
way of sensible impact to the area other than some increased cloud
cover to southeastern portions of the area. A stout dry layer in the
mid and upper levels has largely put the kibosh on any convection in
the vicinity of this feature so far this afternoon. PoPs were thus
lowered for the remainder of the day in southeastern counties,
though an isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible over
the next few hours.

The main story on Sunday will be the building heat courtesy of the
persistent strong midlevel ridge sprawled across the southern US.
Though it will begin retrograding a bit further on Sunday as a
trough begins to dig from the Great Lakes into the Northeast US,
high temperatures will warm a few degrees as compared to today. As
such, highs in the upper 90s are anticipated for the bulk of the CWA
outside of the mountains. Sufficient mixing will keep afternoon
dewpoints in check and thus keep heat index values below Heat
Advisory criteria. Still, heat index values in the upper 90s to as
high as 101-102 in east central Georgia will make for a hot
afternoon.

By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough swinging into the
Northeast will nudge a very weak cold front into north Georgia. A
few showers and thunderstorms could develop in association with this
front as it pushes southward overnight, but coverage should be
fairly limited.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Biggest changes to the long term forecast package come on Monday.
With our current tropical low stalling out more near the coastline,
less moisture looks to be available across the CWA. Upper levels
remain pretty dry. Overall rain chances have come down a bit. Front
is still expected to move towards the area and provide some
increased afternoon Tstorm chances, but hires guidance that has come
into range is not that excited about coverage, with HREF PMM
guidance showing some limited rainfall streaks.

Beyond that, the heat continues to be the main story. Front won`t
provide for much if any relief. It`s definitely going to be hot,
with temperatures in the upper 90s through at least Wednesday. The
question remains just how hot. GFS and other guidance continues to
show blistering temps, but a look at the forecast sounding reveals
some concerns. Models may be really over mixing, a bias we have
seen in the past and that has played out already in some other
locations this year. Diurnal convection may also have something to
say, which would keep temps in line as well if we hit convective
Ts, which is still possible. Have continued to blend a little NBM
10th percentile into the max T forecast to keep things a touch
lower than raw NBM values. Either way, overnight temps in the mid
to upper 70s will provide for little relief from the heat, and max
temps approaching 100 will still mean apparent Ts near 105 or
higher.

After this, trough is expected to move through the area and provide
some relief (hopefully). Still uncertainty around timing, but
overall it looks like we should get some rainfall, which is much
needed given many areas have 30 day averages that are below 25% of
normal.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. SCT cu in 5-7
kft range will diminish after sunset before forming again by
15-16Z Sunday. E to SE winds at 4-7 kts will diminish to light and
vrb to near calm after 00Z. Wind direction will shift W after 12Z
Sunday with speeds 3-6 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  74  97 /  10  10  20  20
Atlanta         75  97  78  96 /   0  10  20  20
Blairsville     67  90  69  89 /  10  10  40  20
Cartersville    71  96  73  96 /   0   0  30  20
Columbus        74  99  76  97 /   0  10  10  30
Gainesville     72  95  76  94 /  10  10  20  20
Macon           73  99  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
Rome            71  98  74  97 /   0  10  40  20
Peachtree City  72  98  75  97 /   0  10  20  20
Vidalia         74  95  77  98 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...RW