Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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188 FXUS62 KFFC 161820 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 220 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 458 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 As the forecast area is sandwiched between a surface low along the Gulf coast and PTC 8 off the coast of the Carolinas, dry weather conditions are expected today and for most locations tomorrow. With a slot of dry air wrapping around the backside of the tropical system off the Carolinas, the chance for precipitation is less than 10% areawide for today. As the system moves over the Carolinas over the course of the short term period, rain chances for northeast Georgia will increase slightly during the overnight hours, but only to ~15-20%. Tomorrow, similar conditions will be on tap, though a few diurnal showers may be possible across central Georgia and again for northeast Georgia as the post tropical system stalls over the Carolinas. Breezy easterly winds continue today with gusts up to 20 mph across north and eastern Georgia, but those will begin to slacken overnight. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures a tad bit warmer tomorrow areawide. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. KAB && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 458 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Key Messages: - Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 (or whatever name it gets, if it gets one) exits to the north with little impacts to north and central Georgia by Tuesday Night. - Outside of some diurnally driven storm chances in mainly east central Georgia, dry week ahead. Forecast Discussion: The biggest game in town for the long term is what is left of PTC 8, and most signs are pointing to it not affecting the CWA. By the start of the long term on Tuesday night, the system should be well dissipated with the only impact some potential moisture hanging around eastern Georgia, especially if PTC 8 takes a more western track as some of the guidance has suggested. Uncertainty is a bit higher on this given guidance is likely struggling with initialization of the system given it is more of an elongated trough than a true low at this point, but even with the high uncertainty, the impacts to north and central Georgia should remain minimal. After this, from Wednesday through Friday we are caught in a bit of a stagnant pattern, with little in the way of upper level flow to bring any systems to the area. The air mass in place is actually somewhat dry, so diurnal storms will be limited to mainly eastern Georgia which has better access to the Atlantic moisture during the evening hours. Skies should be mostly clear and high temps will warm into the mid to upper 80s (and a few 90s may pop up). Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s thanks to clear skies, relatively lower dewpoints, and real Fall actually looming around the corner with its crisp mornings, changing leaves, and PSLs. Going into the weekend, ensembles are liking the possibility of another decent CAD event/wedge front diving into the CWA that will have impacts such as cooler daytime highs and some increased rain chances. The details around this will be important, as the deterministic GFS, for instance, shows one possibility of another coastal (non-tropical) low forming that could bring rain chances and some windier conditions into the area by Sunday/Monday of next week. We will need to see how the models begin to align before making more confident predictions on rain chances. Lusk && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 214 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Ceilings are slowly lifting from the MVFR to VFR range. Most locations Scattered out and they will continue to through the afternoon/evening hours. Expecting them to stay VFR through the period. Winds are still out of the east but the speeds are diminishing. Wind speeds are mainly in he 6-12kt range and should continue to weaken over night. Will see winds turn to the West by daybreak Tuesday then to the NW by Tue afternoon. Wind speeds Tuesday should be in the 7-14kt range. No precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs expected. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Confidence high on all elements. 01 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 62 80 62 84 / 10 20 10 20 Atlanta 62 83 63 85 / 0 10 0 10 Blairsville 56 73 59 77 / 20 30 20 30 Cartersville 59 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 63 86 65 87 / 0 10 0 10 Gainesville 62 79 63 83 / 10 20 10 20 Macon 61 86 65 87 / 0 10 0 10 Rome 60 83 62 85 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 59 83 61 85 / 0 10 0 10 Vidalia 63 85 67 87 / 0 10 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAB LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...01