101
FXUS62 KFFC 201903
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Current cu field shown on satellite should stick around through the
afternoon. Winds are currently mainly easterly but overall are
variable and under 10 mph. The low pressure system has moved off the
eastern coast to the Atlantic while the dome of high pressure
continues to shift eastward. In between this low pressure and high
pressure system a wedge has setup over the northeastern portion of
the area which has allowed for temperatures to be slightly cooler in
that area. Temps up to the upper 80s/low 90s are currently on track
today except for the northeast GA mountains where temps should reach
the low to mid 80s. The entire SE is in a dry pattern with this
upper level pattern and thus dewpoints have been lowered a tad to
account for this. RHs are expected to be in the 30% range for north
Georgia especially. Tomorrow temps will be similar at 8-15 degrees
above normal for much of the area.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

As the extended period begins, a strong upper level ridge will be
extending from the Lower Mississippi River Valley towards the
eastern Great Lakes region. The influence of this ridge and
associated high pressure will keep weather conditions mostly dry
through the early parts of next week. Furthermore, temperatures will
run well above average for late September. Afternoon highs in the
low 90s across the majority of the forecast area Sunday through
Tuesday will be 6-13 degrees above daily normals. Aside from a
stray, isolated shower here and there in the higher elevations of
far northeast Georgia each afternoon, the ridge pattern will keep
precipitation north of the forecast area as it continues to
gradually move eastward towards the Atlantic Coast. By Tuesday a
shortwave trough and surface low will swing through the Midwest,
with a cold front advancing through the Tennessee Valley. At this
point, showers and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase
across north Georgia.

Later next week there is still a lot of uncertainty with the
potential for tropical development in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Most of the model guidance is in agreement that a broad low will
develop in the western Gulf of Mexico, but there remain significant
differences in location, timing, and intensity. There is also little
run to run consistency in the guidance, at this time as well. Will
continue to monitor over the next few days as guidance should come
into better agreement.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

High Pressure over the area will result in VRB and light winds
through tomorrow. This SCT deck will dissipate and we`ll have
clear skies overnight again. Despite winds being VRB they should
generally stay to the east side.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

High on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         68  91  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     62  85  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    65  93  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        69  92  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     66  89  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           67  91  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            65  94  67  93 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  66  91  67  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         68  89  66  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Hernandez