808
FXUS62 KFFC 271012
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
612 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024



...New Update for Tropical Storm Helene...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Helene has been downgraded to a tropical storm and thus the
Hurricane Warnings have been dropped for the region. Tropical
Storm Warnings remain in place for all northern and central
Georgia. Due to Helene taking a more easterly track, wind impacts
in the Atlanta metro may be more isolated. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding remain a significant concern for all of northern
and central Georgia through this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Key Messages

 - Strong winds and heavy rainfall from Helene will continue in
   the region this morning.

 - Conditions will improve rapidly this afternoon as precipitation
   ends and winds weaken.

Today:

At 3 AM, Helene was moving northwards through central Georgia. The
storm made landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida around 11 PM
yesterday as a category 4 storm. As of the last update from the
National Hurricane Center the storm was a category 1 hurricane. The
storm should continue to decrease in intensity as it moves into
north Georgia this morning. While the intensity may be falling, the
storm remains dangerous. Additional tree and power line damage is
probable as the storm moves northwards. Heavy tropical downpours
will also continue to exacerbate flooding concerns.

As we move into the late morning and early afternoon the rainfall
and winds from Helene will gradually diminish as what remains of the
system continues to rocket northwards. Guidance from the HREF favors
a few lingering upslope rain showers over the north Georgia
mountains this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of north and central
Georgia should be rain free by early afternoon. Though the rain will
have largely ended, local rivers and streams will continue to rise
as runoff filters through the drainage basins. Anyone with
interests that could be subject to river or stream flooding should
continue to monitor the river forecasts closely.

Tonight and Saturday:

The remnants of Helene should be absorbed into an upper level trough
over the Tennessee Valley tonight and Saturday. This should lead to
increased rainfall over Tennessee and Kentucky, and some of this
activity could wrap around into northern Georgia. A couple isolated
showers could develop as far south as central Georgia with the
diurnal heating Saturday afternoon. Any rainfall during this period
should be light and scattered, with most locations receiving less
than 0.10 inches of additional precipitation. Other than the minimal
precipitation chances, no significant weather impacts are expected
for storm clean up activities. Peak wind gusts should be in the 20
to 25 mph range Saturday afternoon and high temperatures will be in
the 70s.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Key Messages:

 - Due to excessive rainfall from Hurricane Helene river flooding
   will likely linger into the workweek, especially along the
   main stem rivers.

 - Dry weather and near average temperatures will prevail through
   the upcoming workweek.

Sunday through the Workweek:

Upper level troughing should hangout over the central Appalachians
through early next week. This will allow a slight chance of
thunderstorms to linger over the north Georgia mountains through
Monday. Given the saturated soils any thunderstorms could pose a
localized flooding risk. Drier air wrapping around the trough from
the west should help keep the rest of Georgia dry Sunday and Monday.

Ensemble guidance shifts the trough east into the Atlantic during
the second half of the workweek As this occurs an upper level ridge
should build in over the Southeast. Forecast confidence is high that
this will result in continued dry weather through the end of the
workweek (72 of 80 GEFS & EPS members produce less than 0.1 inches
or precipitation in Atlanta through next Friday). The overall
strength of the upper level ridge looks modest and this should keep
afternoon high temperatures near seasonal averages all week
(around 80 degrees).

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

As Hurricane Helene continues to move into central and northern
Georgia conditions will remain very hazardous for aviation.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in the region through
13Z Friday. Then conditions will gradually improve from south to
north, with prevailing VFR/MVFR likely by 21Z Friday. Winds will
remain hazardous in the region through 16Z Friday, with gusts in
the 50 to 75 kt range possible. Winds should improve after 16Z,
though gusts in the 20 to 35 kt range may linger through 00Z
Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
The center of Helene remains south of ATL and confidence is high
that winds will continue to increase through 09Z. Moderate
confidence in gusts over 50 kt at ATL between 08Z and 13Z Friday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  80  64  81 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         63  78  64  80 /  10  20  10  10
Blairsville     58  70  59  73 /  20  50  30  40
Cartersville    63  78  62  80 /  20  30  10  10
Columbus        64  83  65  85 /   0  10  10   0
Gainesville     62  76  64  78 /  10  20  20  10
Macon           64  83  66  84 /   0  10  10   0
Rome            64  75  62  80 /  30  40  10  20
Peachtree City  62  79  62  81 /  10  20  10  10
Vidalia         66  86  67  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...Albright