Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
255 FXUS62 KFFC 170008 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 808 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 At a glance: - Unseasonable warmth to continue into the work week - Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms today The Southeast remains in a regime of ridging, with the center of a mid-level high located across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas, and the western fringes of a retreating surface high continuing to overspread the area. The result of the aforementioned features: our early season "heat wave" continues. Highs this afternoon will top out in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from northeast Georgia, which will remain in the upper-70s to 80s). Monday looks to be a few degrees "cooler", with highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s expected. The saving grace of this setup continues to be low afternoon relative humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and central Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat Advisory issuance. The moral of the story: despite lower moisture precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself -- and take hydration breaks in the shade -- if planning on spending large parts of your day outdoors, and always look before you lock. With a surface high sliding across New York State and off the Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up against the Appalachian mountains, north and north central Georgia look primed for "cold" air damming through midweek. Aided by isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible today for areas north of I-20. On Monday, with stability on the increase as the wedge strengthens, chances for thunder are low for areas outside of the terrain of NE Georgia, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Sensible differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees lower, in the low-to-mid 80s. 96 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Key Messages: - Dry weather and slightly above average temperatures are expected Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. - Rain chances will be on the rise late in the coming week as tropical moisture filters back into Georgia. An upper level ridge oriented N/S will start the period centered over the Mid-Atlantic states on Tue. This feature is forecast to pivot and become more E-W oriented by late Wed. At the surface, a sprawling high pressure ridge will be situated just N of the area as an easterly wave is forecast to approach the SE US by Thu. Due to the ridge position and dry air in place over the region, PoPs will be low to non-existent for much of the area into Thu. The best chances for diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will be across the SE corner of the area, with chance PoPs returning to locations SE of Macon by Thu afternoon. The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is giving the aforementioned tropical wave a 30% chance of cyclone development through the next week. The latest model guidance has shifted this feature farther to the S, but it is too early to say whether this will persist. We will continue to monitor the wave over the coming days. For now, the main impact from this system looks to be increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late in the workweek and into next weekend as precipitable water values increase across the area. /SEC && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 756 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Scattered SHRA/TSRA is ongoing across portions of far north and east GA, and are expected to gradually diminish after 01Z. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through tonight, with cu field between 060-070 diminishing after sunset and passing high clouds. These ceilings should remain east of all TAF sites, but some scattered MVFR clouds could spread to MCN/AHN around daybreak. Another cu field is expected on Monday afternoon, but chances for SHRA/TSRA are too low for TAF mention at this time. Low ceilings will be possible overnight in portions of far east Georgia. Winds through the period are expected to be primarily SE at 5-10 kts. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on early morning low clouds. High confidence on all other elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 90 68 89 / 10 20 10 0 Atlanta 74 93 71 89 / 20 10 10 0 Blairsville 67 86 65 83 / 20 40 20 0 Cartersville 73 93 71 90 / 20 20 10 0 Columbus 74 95 71 92 / 20 10 10 10 Gainesville 72 89 69 87 / 10 20 10 0 Macon 72 93 68 92 / 20 10 10 10 Rome 73 95 71 92 / 20 20 10 0 Peachtree City 72 93 68 89 / 10 10 0 0 Vidalia 74 93 70 92 / 10 10 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...96 LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...King