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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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617 FXUS62 KFFC 182333 AAA AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 733 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New 00Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Wednesday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Highlights: - Warm temperatures continue through the Short Term. - An isolated shower cannot be ruled out over in NE GA and across south-central GA This afternoon and again Wed afternoon. Current satellite loop shows mainly fair weather CU developing across North and Central GA. Surface Bermuda ridge and Mid level Mid Atlantic ridge combining to keep things mostly dry over the area but we are in easterly Atlantic flow. Most locations will remain dry through Tonight but some isolated showers and/or storms cannot be ruled out with the easterly flow especially at the highest elevations in the northeast (terrain induced) and across far south-central Georgia. Any storms that develop could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures are still forecast to be slightly `cooler` than previous days with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s (80s in the mountains). Forecast lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lower dewpoints and afternoon RH values will keep heat indices near the actual temperature. Nevertheless, continue to be proactive if outdoors! 07/01 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday morning through next Monday) Issued at 237 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Key Messages: - Temperatures will gradually increase this weekend, with heat index values ranging from 100-105 degrees by early next week. - Rain chances will gradually increase from south to north Friday through Monday. Hot, dry conditions are expected on Thursday as the SREF is progging a strong 500 mb ridge and expansive ~1030 mb surface high over much of the eastern CONUS. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s (outside of the mountains). Ensemble guidance depicts a weakening trend in the upper-level ridging Friday through Monday as the jet stream becomes less meridional over the northern tier of the CONUS. The resulting decreased footprint of high pressure will allow for gradually increasing PoPs as easterly flow off the Atlantic advects PWAT of 1.5+ inches inland. A 20% to 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms across central Georgia on Friday and Saturday will give way to area-wide 20% to 50% PoPs on Sunday and Monday. The area of showers and thunderstorms for which NHC is highlighting a 20% chance of cyclone formation in the next 7 days will have an impact on the moisture flux across the CWA, and thus PoPs, as it approaches from the southeast. Meanwhile, mostly to partly sunny conditions will allow for ample insolation and increasing temperatures Friday through Monday. Widespread highs in the mid-90s to upper 90s are expected on Saturday, with widespread highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees on Sunday. The increasing moisture will bring heat index values into the 100-103 degree range on Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. There are areas of 105-107 degree heat index values on Monday afternoon generally across eastern and central Georgia, so it is possible that a Heat Advisory will be issued early next week. Martin && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR and dry conditions through the forecast with thick high clouds and a few-sct cumulus 5-7kft in the afternoon and evening. E sfc winds somewhat strong for this time of year, 5-10kts overnight increasing to 10-15kts with gusts 20-26kts likely after 15Z Wed. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... High confidence for all elements. SNELSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 65 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Atlanta 68 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 62 83 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 67 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 71 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 66 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 Macon 67 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 69 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 69 89 69 91 / 10 20 10 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...SNELSON