428
FXUS62 KFFC 311902
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated showers are possible in western Georgia Saturday, but
most of the area will remain dry.

 - Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday night,
especially in northern Georgia.

This Evening through Saturday Night:

Upper level ridging will be replaced by weak troughing during this
period as a shortwave trough moves from the Ozarks to the Ohio
Valley. This transition will allow scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms to gradually filter into the region Saturday and
Saturday night. Forecast rain chances through the day on Saturday
are in the 10 to 30 percent range over western Georgia. Any thunder
on Saturday should be limited due to anemic CAPE profiles (MUCAPE
values 300 to 700 J/kg). Severe weather is not expected and any
interruptions to daily activities should be brief in nature. A
surface high over the Atlantic and the approaching shortwave will
combine to keep east/southeast winds moving in the region on
Saturday at 4 to 12 kt. Afternoon highs should range from the 70s in
northwest Georgia (where clouds will be pervasive) to the upper 80s
in east central Georgia. Rain chances will continue to inch upward
Saturday night, especially in northwest Georgia where proximity to
the upper level trough will be better. Expect rain chances near 60
percent in north Georgia, falling to 10 percent near Macon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

A shortwave trough will be pushing across the Ohio Valley across the
Appalachians on Sunday, while at the surface a weak frontal boundary
approaches Georgia from the northwest. This will serve to keep PoPs
relatively elevated on Sunday, particularly across northwest and
north Georgia where scattered showers and thunderstorms are most
probable.

From Monday to Tuesday, the region will remain within weak quasi-
zonal flow aloft. PoPs will remain in the isolated to widely
scattered realm through midweek, with the highest PoPs relegated to
north Georgia as weak shortwave disturbances ripple to our north. By
late Wednesday into Thursday, as troughing builds back eastward
across the Great Lakes region, a weak cold front will be ushered
toward the area. PoPs will thus be on an upward trend from north to
south through Thursday ahead of the front. At this point,
significant severe weather concerns are not anticipated.

No huge temperature variations or anomalies are expected through the
period. Highs will be near to slightly below normal Sunday, trending
to near to slightly above normal through the work week while initial
near-normal lows will trend several degrees above normal by
midweek.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions (cloud bases AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will prevail in the region through 18Z Saturday, then
showers or isolated thunderstorms could result in localized
visibility restrictions. Winds will remain easterly or
southeasterly (080-150 degrees) at 4 to 12 kt through 00Z Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Moderate confidence in the ATL TAF
High confidence in the wind and visibility forecasts.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation and ceiling forecasts.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          57  82  63  82 /   0  10  20  40
Atlanta         64  82  66  82 /   0  20  40  50
Blairsville     56  73  59  76 /   0  10  40  60
Cartersville    62  82  64  82 /   0  20  50  60
Columbus        66  86  67  85 /  10  20  30  40
Gainesville     59  79  64  79 /   0  10  30  50
Macon           61  85  66  85 /   0  10  10  30
Rome            63  82  64  82 /  10  30  60  60
Peachtree City  63  83  64  83 /   0  20  40  40
Vidalia         62  85  67  87 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Albright