067
FXUS62 KFFC 160749
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
349 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry and warm weather are expected in the region today.

 - Clouds and rain showers should return to the region Friday,
leading to cooler temperatures across northern Georgia.

Today:

A transient upper level ridge building over Georgia today will
produce dry weather and warmer temperatures. Subsidence and drier
air below 700 mb should also result in mostly clear skies and lower
humidity. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected for
everyone except those who dwell in the mountains of northern
Georgia. If you happen to be one of those fine fellows then you can
anticipate an afternoon high temperature in the 70s. Winds will be
from the northwest again today, but weaker surface pressure
gradients will bring wind speeds (5 to 10 mph) down compared to
yesterday afternoon.

Tonight and Friday:

A weak surface high will settle over the southern Appalachians
tonight. This high will combine with diurnal decoupling of the
boundary layer to produce calm winds tonight. Widespread high cloud
cover should stream back into Georgia tonight as southwesterly flow
and moisture advection in the mid and upper levels intensifies ahead
of a developing trough in the Southern Plains. A shortwave riding
through the prevailing southwesterly flow aloft could push a few
rain showers into western Georgia before sunrise on Friday. In
general though the arrival of any rainfall should hold off until the
daylight hours on Friday for most of Georgia. Expect rain chances to
steadily increase through the day. By Friday afternoon our forecast
rain chances range from 80 percent in northwest Georgia to 30
percent in east Central Georgia. Limited instability (MUCAPE < 500
J/kg in the 00Z HREF guidance) suggests rain showers as the
predominate precipitation type, with any thunderstorm activity being
isolated at best. Widespread cloud cover and areas of rainfall
should keep temperatures suppressed Friday afternoon. High
temperatures should be 3 to 6 degrees below seasonal average in
north Georgia (70s). Highs in the 80s remain in the forecast from
Macon southward where more sunshine and less rainfall are expected.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The beginning of the long term is filled with uncertainty thanks in
part to unknowns around convective evolution on the previous day.
The HRRR, for instance, shows a significant ongoing MCS into Friday
night to the south of the CWA and into the Gulf. Depending on how
long this feature persisted, it would likely cut off more
significant moisture return to the CWA on Saturday, limiting the
overall rainfall. However, if this scenario doesn`t play out, such
as in much of the ensemble guidance and deterministic medium range
models, rain and convection focused along and rising north of a
baroclinic boundary would be on tap for Saturday, with the
possibility of some flooding/flash flooding. Like previous days, QPF
forecasts are 1-2" during the Saturday morning/afternoon time
period, but there remains high variability within this, with details
not likely to be fully known until we see how some of the convective
evolution plays out on the previous days.

The upper level wave responsible for this system continues to move
to the east and southeast by Sunday. Models are again favoring
development of surface low off the coastline that allows for
moisture to remain in the area on Sunday and then builds in some
potential sudo-wedging into Monday. PoPs have been bumped up a
touch, but for temperatures, there is a large potential range of
forecast temps on Sunday and Monday based on cloud cover and the
development of the sudo-wedge. The NBM IQR for AHN is 8 degrees on
Monday, with nearly 15 degree difference in the 90th and 10th
percentiles. So, have chosen to bring temps down compared to
previous forecasts, but didn`t want to completely buy in on the
wedge forming just yet. If models continue to bite on wedge
formation, expect forecast highs to drop further on those days.

We get another break from the precip from Monday into Tuesday as we
get caught between upper level low off the coast and system
developing across the Great Plains. Models show that rainfall
chances should increase into Wednesday, though timing and details
are still overall fuzzy.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Patchy IFR/MVFR contains will occur over the higher terrain of
northern Georgia through 15Z today. VFR conditions (FEW-SCT AOA
4000 FT AGL and unrestricted visibility) will prevail between 15Z
today and 12Z Friday. Northwest winds (290-340 degrees) will
continue through 00Z Friday, then light and variable winds should
occur.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Confidence in all elements of the ATL TAF is high.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          85  62  77  64 /   0   0  60  80
Atlanta         85  65  77  67 /   0  10  70  80
Blairsville     79  57  72  60 /   0   0  80  80
Cartersville    84  62  76  64 /   0  10  80  80
Columbus        87  67  82  69 /   0  20  70  70
Gainesville     84  63  74  65 /   0   0  70  80
Macon           87  65  83  68 /   0   0  50  70
Rome            85  62  77  65 /   0  20  80  80
Peachtree City  85  63  78  66 /   0  10  70  80
Vidalia         88  67  87  72 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Albright