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FXUS62 KFFC 150806
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
406 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

After an active week of weather, damp and dreary conditions for much
of the forecast area is expected to come to an end in the short term
forecast period. While a surface low to our southwest develops over
the northern Gulf, we will continue to see light showers primarily
south of the I-20 corridor today. With roughly a tenth of an inch of
rainfall in the forecast for our far southwestern counties today, we
have opted to end the Flood Watch. Despite MUCAPE progged at +/- 500
J/kg this afternoon, the stable airmass within the wedge is going to
be difficult to overcome without any forcing. Thunderstorm chances
will be hampered today with the exception of our far southern
locations who may hear a rumble or two of thunder. Overnight, rain
chances drop below 10% for the entire forecast area.

As we go through the day today, a surface low developing off the
coast of the Carolinas will warrant monitoring. At the time of this
writing, NHC has progged this area with a 50% of tropical
development in the next 48 hours. While this system is not expected
to bring significant impacts to our forecast area (only a low end
slight chance of rain is forecast), an increase in PoPs over
northeast Georgia on Monday may be possible depending on how the
system plays out. The low over the northern Gulf will also produce a
chance for precipitation for our far southwestern counties, but
again, with the wedge still expected to hold in place tomorrow,
limited, if any, thunderstorms are expected. Despite low end rain
chances with some enhanced cloud coverage, Monday on the whole will
be much drier than what we have been previously experiencing.

Today and tomorrow, high temperatures will reach the upper 70s to
mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to upper
60s across the forecast area.

KAB

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Key Messages:

  - Long term is quiet, with little in the way of sensible weather
    impacts outside of some diurnal storm chances in east central
    Georgia.

  - Highs in the mid to upper 80s, lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Forecast Discussion:

The long term is looking increasingly quiet, which this forecaster
is happy to see. Most of the guidance shows the low expected to
develop off the SE coast coming ashore by Monday night in or near NC
(though the latest GFS suite wanted to push things a touch further
south). Whether or not this develops into a tropical/subtropical
system looks to be irrelevant to the forecast for north and central
Georgia. Some rain may be able to hang on in the eastern portions of
the state into the early evening before dissipating overnight. This
low should effectively cut off the what is left of the CAD/wedge,
bringing in a NW flow that should bring clearing skies and an
overall much drier week, with the exception of some lingering
moisture near the coasts that could bring some rain chances to
southeastern central Georgia, especially during the late afternoon
and early evening hours. The NBM 90th percentile shows a rainfall
footprint over these areas, which is likely indicative of these low
end thunderstorm chances that some of the guidance is picking up on.

In the absence of any large scale forcing impacting the CWA, our
airmass will be mostly stagnant, keeping deeper tropical moisture to
the south. This will allow for a larger diurnal temperature spread,
with high temps reaching into the mid to upper 80s by the end of the
week while overnight lows dip into the upper 50s and low to mid 60s.
The next weather change with any real sensible impacts may not be
until the weekend, where ensembles show a decent signal for another
CAD/wedge to roll into the CWA (it`s fall, y`all).

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Currently VFR at all TAF locations, but cigs are expected to lower
to MVFR in a few hours. Around sunrise, northern sites will hover
around low-end MVFR with MCN/CSG dropping to IFR. Intermittent
-SHRA is expected this afternoon and evening. Breezy easterly
winds between 9-12KT are expected with occasional gusts around
20KT this afternoon. VFR conditions return at the end of the TAF
period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on IFR cigs. High confidence on remaining
elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  65  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
Atlanta         80  66  81  62 /  20  10  20  10
Blairsville     77  58  79  54 /  10  10  20  10
Cartersville    82  65  84  59 /  20  10  20  10
Columbus        81  67  82  64 /  60  30  30  10
Gainesville     79  64  80  61 /  10  10  20  10
Macon           82  67  81  62 /  40  20  20  10
Rome            84  64  85  60 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  79  64  81  59 /  30  10  20  10
Vidalia         82  69  80  65 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAB
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...KAB